Courtesy of ESPN's Mark Schlabach, who I got to know when I was on the Virginia beat. (I'm also trying to keep the ESPN streak of blog posts going.)No, Auburn is not on his list (and honestly, it shouldn't be), so this post has very little to do with the Tigers. But there are five SEC teams in the top 14, so I figured it would merit some debate, especially on a non-existent news day in Auburn.
Here are the SEC teams:
1. Florida: I don't think anybody would argue with this ranking. The Gators return their whole defense (and their whole backup defense). And apparently they have a guy at quarterback who walks on water when he's not winning Heisman trophies or circumcising children in the Philippines. The Gators have to be the odds on favorite to win the national title next season. Vegas, in fact, has them at 7/4 odds. (Auburn, incidentally, is 150/1).
4. Alabama: A bit high in my opinion. Andre Smith and Antoine Caldwell were such a huge part of that offense. Anyone remember how the Tide fared in the Sugar Bowl without Smith up front? Glen Coffee was a workhorse and John Parker Wilson, despite being a caretaker for that offense, was solid under center. That defense is going to be strong, but you've got to score at some point. That Virginia Tech opener at the Georgia Dome is going to be tough. The Hokies defense is not one you want to break in a new quarterback against.
8. LSU: Is this a case of everybody reading too much into a strong bowl performance? Yes, the Tigers blew out Georgia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl, but here's the thing about momentum from a bowl game: it doesn't exist. The season starts nine months later. There's no effect. As for LSU, everyone seems convinced its quarterback situation is resolved. I'm not. Jordan Jefferson had a solid finish (414 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT in last three games), but not enough to completely alleviate every Tigers fan's fears. Charles Scott was a huge factor in that offense, and won't be easily replaced. And LSU's supposedly stout defense wasn't anywhere near as good as it has been, allowing 31 or more points in five of its last nine games.
11. Ole Miss: Everybody's darling pick for next year and for good reason, considering the Rebels won their last six games. I'm always weary of teams that make a huge jump one year and people expect them to make a similar jump the following year. That said, 11 feels about right for Ole Miss to start the season. Jevan Snead is back at quarterback, Dexter McCluster is back at RB (and Wild Rebel formation maestro) and the defense brings back a lot of players. Plus, the schedule is favorable, with Alabama and LSU coming to Oxford. BUT, let's look at Houston Nutt's credentials as a big-time coach. His best year was a 10-4 season in 2006 and he's never won an SEC title. And think of some of that talent he had at Arkansas. His last year, with Darren McFadden AND Felix Jones, his team finished 8-5, with a .500 record in the SEC. Just something to think about.
14. Georgia: it will be interesting to see how the Dawgs fare after losing both Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno to the draft. This team seems ripe with Ewing Theory potential. It's a theory floated out there by ESPN Page 2's Bill Simmons, who while many people dislike, I find entertaining to read. Here it is boiled down to its simplest form: "When a longtime superstar who has never won a championship leaves the team via injury, trade or free agency, and the media writes the team off, the team will play better." For as good as those two were, they never won an SEC title (and their one BCS victory was against a Hawaii team that had no business being there). They're kind of the darkhorse in the conference, not getting all the pub that the aforementioned four teams are getting. And while the Bulldogs will have a drop-off in play at those two positions, they still have plenty of talent.
Any other thoughts on these rankings?
5 comments:
the biggest knock on Houston Nutt was he always had a run first offense. Not to mention he never had a big-time passing QB. Good RBs don't make winners, because teams can just stack the box. The difference between Nutt of old and Nutt now is his O-coordinator, Kent Austin. Austin comes from the pass-happy CFL, and loves to throw the ball. Jevan Snead is the best passing QB in the SEC, and will only be better next year. That is why Ole Miss is a top 10 team.
It is what it is...I think the Media makes their money off of predictions. A prediction is defined as:Something foretold or predicted; a prophecy.
How many "Predicitions" have their been in History much less College Football.
Yes, you can study a team and the talent and the coaching and etc...
But if ANYONE could actually predict the coming season they would have better ways to spend their time...i.e.LOTTERY
Too many people spend so much time reading all this garbage instead of making their own analsys of their teams. Too many people look to ESPN and other news outlets to program their brains on what they SHOULD believe.
It is always great to record "Predictions" at the beginning of a season and then in January after the BCS Championship game go back and look at who won their Conferences and who finished where.
Media is what it is...It is FICTIONAL writing...nothing more than guesses and prophecy.
Any every heard of Nostradamus?
If not he was the French astrologer who wrote cryptic predictions whose interpretations are still being debated (1503-1566)
At least our predictions are played out within 365 days...but none the less debated.
Or predictions are just something harmless and entertaining to discuss in the sporting abyss that is February.
Agreed, however...
Predictions or "Prophecy" takes on reality.
Example...PRESEASON POLLS...Should be renamed PROPHECY POLLS.
It is all fun and games until you are truly the best team in the nation but start the season ranked 20th. Your ranking is based off of a non-science of pre-season polls.
I was a Tuberville man...I do believe, however, in the past few seasons he lost his edge in recuiting and on the field intensity. The one thing he was right on is not ranking teams until at least the 5 th week of the season.
The media 9 times out of 10 will pick the "trendy picks".
For this preseason it will be...
Alabama (who at your own acknoledgement looses a lot of talent...A LOT OF TALENT! They were handed their manhood against UTAH!!! But the Media Gods forget when it is Bama. Miami. Notre Dame. Michigan.USC.Florida...ETC...
I dont even have to elaborate on this.
I think you write a great blog and you may be new to how college football works.
Look at it this way...Tradition pays dividends.
If we started a group of people today to rank college football; and this group had no Idea of the traditions of the teams; or how many championships they won; if they analized the teams in week 5 of the season; (Again, having no idea of conference strenght or HISTORY of this) how do you think the rankings would be?
Media can be swayed...you dont think the media writers on the West Coast are putting in numbers for USC???
You dont think the East Coasters are dropping votes for Bama and Florida???
Is that fair?
Does that Fairly rank the teams?
NO
What it does is turn the entire process into where are you ranked to started season.
After that...up to you.
I would write an article about how out of touch the preseason polls are and their effect on who has played in the BCS Championship since its inception.
Keep doing a great job!
I love your Blogs and coverage!
I agree that preseason polls are mostly meaningless and often out of touch with how teams will actually fare during a season (Utah and Alabama being two good examples from last year).
But remember the AP poll isn't a component of the BCS rankings anymore, so it actually has no bearing on how things wind up at the end of the season. So I really don't see the harm in doing a preseason poll.
The coaches? They could probably wait until Week 5 like you suggested and it would be a more fair ranking, especially for a poll that does factor into the BCS rankings.
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