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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Looking forward to 2010: Running backs

If you missed the first installment about the quarterbacks from yesterday, you can read it by scrolling down or clicking here. And as usual you can get instant updates by following the blog on Twitter.

Now for the running backs ...

* -- scholarship player

WHO'S GONE?
  • Starter: Ben Tate*
  • Reserves: None
WHO'S COMING BACK?
  • Seniors: Mario Fannin*
  • Juniors: Eric Smith*, John Douglas*
  • Sophomores: Onterio McCalebb*, Jason King
  • Redshirt Freshmen: Dontae Aycock*
  • Incoming freshmen: Michael Dyer*
Running backs coach Curtis Luper boldly declared last spring that Tate would be 1,000-yard rusher in his final season on the Plains. 1,406 yards and 10 touchdowns later, he proved to be prophetic, more than hitting the mark. Now it's a matter of replacing Tate, and the Tigers aren't without their options.

Of course the biggest name Auburn fans see coming in is Dyer, ESPN's No. 1 running back recruit and Rivals' No. 3. And playing time for his seems almost a certainty. But how much? It's unreasonable, I think, to expect Dyer to come in and handle the majority of the load like Tate did this year. Look at the best freshman running backs in the country from last year (the ones in the top half of Rivals' Top 100) and how they fared:
  • No. 1: Bryce Brown, Tennessee: 101 carries, 460 yards, 3 touchdowns, understudy to Montario Hardesty
  • No. 2: Trent Richardson, Alabama: 126 carries, 642 yards, 6 touchdowns, understudy to Mark Ingram
  • No. 3: Christine Michael, Texas A&M: 166 carries, 844 yards, 10 touchdowns, nearly an even split of carries with sophomore Cyrus Gray
  • No. 4: David Wilson, Virginia Tech: 59 carries, 334 yards, 4 touchdowns, understudy to Ryan Williams
  • No. 5: Jaamal Berry, Ohio State: did not play after being charged with felony marijuana possession during the summer
  • No. 6: Edwin Baker, Michigan State: 85 carries, 427 yards, 1 touchdown, second-most carries and yards to Larry Caper
The biggest exception to this rule is Pittsburgh's Dion Lewis, who ran 325 times for an amazing 1,788 yards and 17 touchdowns as a true freshman. But that's rare. Normally, it's hard for a freshman to step in and be The Guy from the very start. Is Dyer talented? Yes. Will he get on the field this year? I believe Gus Malzahn will find a way for that to happen quite a bit. Will he be the team's workhorse? Probably not right away but perhaps as the season progresses and he adjusts to the college game.

Seniority always seems to be a major factor in these playing time situations, so let's start with Fannin, who I think has a shot to finally get major carries as a running back. If Eric Smith gets his academics in order and returns to the H-back role that he played so well last year, Fannin seems like a good fit as an every-down kind of back. He's big (225 pounds). He's got some moves. And in his limited time as a true running back this year, he did pretty well. On 34 carries, he averaged 8.4 yards a carry. That's pretty hard to ignore. And you would figure that with his experience, Fannin, a fifth-year guy, would have a much better grasp on the blocking schemes involved in the passing game than an incoming freshman, something that can't be understated.

McCalebb turned out to be what everyone thought he would be: a nice speed option who has questions about durability. And at 164 pounds, I feel like that might always be the case. There's a place for that in this offense, but he doesn't seem like he'll be able to take that pounding of running between the tackles like Fannin or even Dyer, who is stout at 5-foot-8, 201 pounds (and that's before he gets into Auburn's strength and conditioning program).

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Aycock next year. This was a guy who came in pretty high on a lot of peoples' lists and, according to Luper, slimmed down quite a bit during his redshirt season. I figure Auburn will need at least one every-down back to help complement Fannin, and I'd be surprised if the coaching staff made Dyer wait for his turn to get on the field immediately. Where does that leave Aycock in this situation? Can he still steal some carries? At 221 pounds, is he a candidate to play H-back? As a former quarterback, is he someone who can play as a Wildcat quarterback? It'll be interesting to see how things start to shake out in the spring.

16 comments:

Kevin Combs said...

A couple of quick comments. Dion Lewis ran the ball 325 "times", not "yards". I think it's important to note that the vast majority of Fannin's yards came on plays in space, as a change-up back, rather than running between the tackles. In the few times he's tried to run inside, I haven't been impressed with his acceleration to and through the hole. He needs to watch some game film of Kenny Irons for inspiration. I think Auburn will utilize Dyer (and perhaps Eric Smith or Aycock) in the inside run game and continue to use Fannin as a change of pace (swing pass) player. Of course, I could be wrong. Aycock would be an interesting wildcat choice, since he was a high school QB. Surely he can throw it more accurately than Kodi ... we can only hope.

eaglesteeler said...

I don't believe Fannin will be THAT back, like Tate became. I see too many issues with the way he doesn't really knock defensive players down, but seems to get hit and go down too easily.

I believe it is just because of his running style.

Andy Bitter said...

I agree that nobody is going to get the lion's share of carries next year like Tate did this season. But I think Fannin will be one of the players to get some. I could see a scenario where two, maybe three backs get an equal number of carries, just because Auburn's backfield appears to be so diversified.

Anonymous said...

This assessment is so far off the wall and just plain incorrect, that I will ot even bother to refute it point by point since it would take about half an hour. Just goes to show the blue and orange juice is pretty potent (especially when combined with the respect for Ears and his mantra of seniority in determining playing time).

Andy Bitter said...

I'll be honest, I have no idea what you're talking about.

Anonymous said...

I kinda think the durability issue with McCalebb might be just a little over blown at this point. The guy sprained an ankle which is a bad injury for a speed guy, but it's not like he got hit and broke a shoulder, which would be an injury that you could contribute to size. Of course I am worried about if he can take the pounding, I just don't think its for sure he can't yet.

As far as number one back, i'd bet on fannin given that he doesn't have fumble problems. When given the chance to run he's always impressed me more as a runningback than a receiver. War Eagle!
James

tbrad said...

Fannin is and was the BEST back at AU his soph. year. Fannin is bigger, faster, and more powerful than Tate by far. He does have some fumbling issues, but seems like Tate did to this year. Fannin has an awesome skill set. He deserves a real shot to be the man at AU. People who speak things such as "he doesn't knock players over" are crazy on many ocasions it takes 3 to four guys just to stop him once he get his momentum going foward. I can see him rushing for atleast 1600 at AU with the porper carries and minus injuries. Its Super Mario Time!

ExKnightMike said...

I hope Fannin comes through and lives up to all his alleged potential.
In the meantime, two different coaching staffs and three different coordinators have found Fannin to be somewhat lacking.

From their freshman year on, when Tate played and Fannin was redshirted it's been the same story.

If Fannin is ever going to step up, he's got one last chance....

Anonymous said...

I think Fannin has the talent to be a great every down back IF he doesn't fumble too frequently. If he were carrying the ball 20 times a game, I'd be worried about 1-2 fumbles a game. Maybe, spring and summer drills as the #1 back will help him learn how to hold onto the ball. I hope so!o

Anonymous said...

Has anyone seen Fannin run through a hole / between the tackles?

Fannin is a great athlete, and a great runner in space. Not suitable for power running between the tackles. That makes him unsuitable for TB and wildcat QB role. He's a great HB.

mrdude said...

Did you not see the UGA game in 08 when he got plenty of carries? he had no problem running between the tackles.
Unless Aycock or Dyer struggle in the RB position, I think Fannin will stay at his utility back; not because he's not good enough to play RB but because he's the best at his current position. Though we may see him get some more carries at RB, i think that he'll stay put.

Anonymous said...

"I'll be honest, I have no idea what you're talking about."

No prob, I'll type this slowly so you will have a shot a comprehending.

You are a homer, and an Ears lover, so your perceptions are skewed towards his coaching principles. That is: play the seniors since they have stuck with us. Fannin is a stud physically (no doubt), but he fumbles and dances around in the hole, plus he gets injured at TB. Now put him in space and let him get started from Point A to Point B, and no one in college football is better. But, he ain't gon'na be the bell cow in your backfield. Eric Smith may never play another down at Auburn (after his off the field problems, and now grades). John Douglass got a DUI and may never play another down at Auburn. Luper has stated that Aycock lost about 15 pounds during the season (reforming his body), and McCalebb "might" weigh 175 and will never withstand the physical pounding of an every down SEC back.

You best pray that Michael Dyer faxes his letter on signing day and he is the real deal or we could be in deep do-do at TB next year. And, I would sugget that we make sure D.J. Howard doesn't defect to Clemson as we might well need him at TB. Now (O' Phillip Marshall wa'nna be homer) tell me where that analysis is incorrect.

Andy Bitter said...

I've been called a lot of things. Auburn homer isn't one of them.

I'll spare the back and forth about the extraneous stuff you're baiting me with and make my point as succinctly as possible: I cannot imagine the coaching staff going into a season with its two primary backs (Dyer and Aycock) having never gotten a carry at the college level. Just can't see it happening. Especially since learning the blocking schemes is an important part of a running backs duties. And generally, the older you are in college, the better you are at blocking.

Anonymous said...

"Especially since learning the blocking schemes is an important part of a running backs duties. And generally, the older you are in college, the better you are at blocking."

Thank you for cementing my point about being an Ears lover. Eddie Gran (of BBQ gang fame) is the only coach on the face of the earth that I know of that would start Tre Smith over Kenny Irons because "he knew the blocking scheme and was better at picking up the blitz". Hilarious.

Andy Bitter said...

Yeah, that's not a Tubs things. That's a coaching thing. Ask Chizik and Luper. They'll tell you the same thing.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Anonymous:

You don't know what on earth you are talking about. I will leave it at that.