We're in the no man's land between SEC Media Days and when players report on Aug. 3, so to fill the time, the blog has brought back our "Ask an Opposing Team's Beat Writer" segment.We'll go through the schedule, starting today with Arkansas State. I hope to get one a day during the next week and a half, but I'm not sure how well I'll stick to the schedule. An easy solution would be to follow the blog on Twitter so you know exactly when the post goes up.
Without further adieu, here's Arkansas State:
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Head coach: Steve Roberts (9th season at Arkansas State, 41-55; 17th overall, 88-90-1 at Southern Arkansas State, Northwestern State and Arkansas State)- 2009 record: 4-8 (3-5 Sun Belt, t-6th)
- Returning starters: 8 (4 offense, 4 defense)
- Total offense: 328.8 ypg (6th Sun Belt, 95th nationally)
- Total defense: 340.5 ypg (1st Sun Belt, 41st nationally)
- Series: Auburn leads 1-0
- Last meeting: Auburn won 27-0 in 2006 at Jordan-Hare Stadium
- Consensus prediction: Third place in the Sun Belt
- Sept. 4: at Auburn
- Sept. 11: at Louisiana-Lafayette
- Sept. 18: Louisisana-Monroe
- Sept. 25: at Troy
- Oct. 2: Louisville
To find out more about this year's team, I got the help of Matt Roberson, the Arkansas State beat writer for the Jonesboro Sun. Read all about the Red Wolves at www.jonesborosun.com. That's the only paper with a full-time beat writer, so you're sure to get the Red Wolves scoop by going there.
AB: Eight years into the Roberts era, how do Red Wolves fans view the coach? Is he revered for making a program that struggled so mightily once it joined the I-A ranks competitive? Or are fans growing weary of five- to six-win seasons that fall just short of bowl eligibility, especially after one of the more talented teams in school history struggled to a 4-8 mark last year?
MR: It seems Arkansas State’s fan base has become somewhat fractured over coach Roberts in recent years. There are many people who support coach Roberts and understand that he’s turned a program that was once at the very bottom of college football when he took over into a competitive Sun Belt team. However, there is also a strong amount of criticism directed toward Roberts for failing to get over the hump and make it to seven wins or more. Last year’s team and its final record was a major disappointment to all fans, and that disappointment led to greater vocal opposition for Roberts. It’s hard to say whether coach Roberts is on the hot seat or not, but it’s clearly important that he have some success this season and bring back to the fold those who have lost their fondness for him.AB: New offensive coordinator Hugh Freeze is well-known in SEC circles for being Ed Orgeron's recruiting coordinator at Ole Miss when the Rebels struggled on the field but amassed a haul of talented recruits. What kind of impact do you think he'll have on Arkansas State's recruiting efforts? Might he be able to snag some players that slip through the SEC cracks? And how well will his no-huddle spread offense work?
MR: I expect Freeze to have an immediate impact on Arkansas State’s recruiting efforts and success offensively. Freeze has several qualities that make him an excellent hire for ASU. He has a great offensive mind, has experience on numerous levels and he’s both professional and very personable. I expect him to accomplish a lot of things while he’s here. One of Arkansas State’s biggest weaknesses during the past decade has been at wide receiver, but with Freeze’s inroads to high school and junior college programs across the country, I’m sure ASU will bring in plenty capable receivers to fit this new style. There’s always a player or two who slip through the cracks, and I’m sure Freeze will find a couple. As far as his offense, I expect some growing pains this year, maybe some flashes of potential, but I do believe it will be a work in progress that will take two or three years to transition to.AB: The Red Wolves bid farewell to four-year starting quarterback Corey Leonard. Between Ryan Aplin, who played some near the end of last year, or redshirt freshman Phillip Butterfield, who had a strong spring, who will emerge as the guy to replace him?
MR: Arkansas State had the same situation four years ago when Leonard was a redshirt freshman and Travis Hewitt was a sophomore. This time Butterfield is the redshirt freshman and Aplin is the sophomore. Going into preseason practice, no starter has been set and a battle for the position will definitely generate a lot of interest and speculation. Aplin knows the offense, has real game experience and seems to be a smart decision maker that won’t hurt his team. Butterfield has the stronger arm and is better equipped physically, but he missed all of last fall with a knee injury and only began practicing in the spring. Butterfield appears to have the better skills but he’s still behind as far as the speed of the game. I suspect Aplin will be named the starter for the opener but the battle will continue into the season and that Butterfield will share some of the playing time. By the fourth or fifth game, look for Butterfield to probably take over as the full-time starter.MR: Last year's defense was built around a line that featured Carrington, who's now with the Buffalo Bills. What is the strength of this year's unit and how effective can this group be after losing seven starters from a year ago?
MR: Arkansas State’s defensive line returns only one starter in all-conference tackle Bryan Hall, but the team picked up a big transfer in Texas defensive tackle Derek Johnson. It appears Johnson will be cleared to play immediately. While the line took some hits to its starting core, this has typically been the deepest unit on the team. At times, they rotated up to 10 linemen during a game last year. Many of the backups were practically starters so the dropoff won’t be as steep as some might think. The linebackers are clearly the strength of the defense and may be the best group Steve Roberts has ever assembled. Demario Davis led the team in tackles (80) last year and showed an instinct and explosive ability like the unit hadn’t seen in years. He’ll be joined by returning starter Darius Glover and Javon McKinnon, an all-conference pick, while the depth is solid. Cornerback is the biggest question mark on defense with the loss of both starters. Both safeties return but passing teams could take advantage of the inexperience out on the islands. I expect this defense to be just as strong as last year. Defense has been a staple at ASU for some time now.AB: Beating Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium in the opener would be a tall task, but what about the rest of the Red Wolves' schedule? Is this a team that is capable of getting over the six-win ceiling that's hovered over the school? What's a best-case and worst-case scenario?
MR: Arkansas State will be a young football team that is breaking in new starters at the skill positions on offense and throughout its defensive unit. The team is also switching to a new offense and lost one of its better assistant coaches during the offseason to another school. I’m not sure if the Red Wolves are capable of breaking through the 6-win ceiling they’ve been unable to break through. This is a team in transition and the season could get pretty rough before things smooth out. A best-case finish would be 8-4 with losses coming to Auburn, Navy, Middle Tennessee and Troy. The worst-case scenario would be 3-9 with their only wins coming against Louisiana-Monroe, Florida Atlantic and Western Kentucky. Either could happen, but I suspect Arkansas State to finish 4-8 or 5-7.Alas, I did not buy the NCAA Football '11 game this year, so I won't be able to do the game simulations. But if there's any kind soul out there who does have the game and would like to post the result in the comments section below, I would definitely appreciate it.
Up next: Auburn opens conference play with what could be a tough one on a Thursday night in Starkville.
8 comments:
This game will be a laugher and not the kind of game we should schedule. Yes, they came close against an Iowa team with a great defense and questionable offense, but with 8 returning starters, they are in for a rough time.
With a stretch of Mississippi State, Clemson and South Carolina right after this, I don't think it's a bad idea for Auburn to ease into the season.
Just remember - Texas needed some help from the refs a few years to keep from losing to A-State, and A-State also beat Texas A&M that next year. They may not be BCS-quality every year but they have done well against BCS schools on the road of late.
Notice they're never on our schedule!
Go Hogs!
.....I think we did play ASU in 2006, and struggled to beat 'em 27-0. It was right before the 37-15 UGA meltdown.
AU 38-7
that's just a guess, not a video game result. I'll ask Scottie B for the latter.
AB, I played them this past weekend and beat them 70-0. Of course the starters played the entire time. Neiko had 3 INTs in the first half, returned one for a TD, recovered a fumble, and had a sack. Obviously he was the Player of the Game. My boy Kodi was the breakout receiving threat with over 100 yards and a TD. Don't ask me how I remember all this junk. All on all it was an impressive opening performance on both sides of the ball.
OK, but how good are you at the game? I mean, I once built a dynasty with Vanderbilt, so the human element can skew things.
How did a straight simulation between Auburn and Arkansas State go? I'm guessing not too different.
I would say I'm average. NCAA and Madden are the only games I play. I'll have to do a straight sim. I'll let u know what happens. As a reference I beat MSU in Starkville by a TD, beat UGA at home by 16, and beat Bama by a late FG in Tuscaloosa.
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