War Eagle Extra has moved!

You should be automatically redirected in 4 seconds. If not, visit
http://www.wareagleextra.com
and update your bookmarks.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Auburn still not close to going to the Big Dance

I feel obligated to put up this post just based on some of the message board rumblings after Auburn's four-point win against Alabama last night.

Put simply, Auburn IS NOT an NCAA tournament team now and, unless the Tigers win the SEC tournament and receive and automatic berth to the Big Dance, nothing is going to change that.

I know. I know. Hater in the house. But it's not me. The experts think so too.

Mobile scribe Evan Woodbery posts bracket expert Jerry Palm's thoughts on the subject, and they're not pretty.

O-A News wordsmith Andrew "Gribbs" Gribble spent two hours of his morning waiting for ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi to slam Auburn. Lunardi obliged.

Let's break down why Auburn doesn't have much of a shot by refuting some arguments out there:

Auburn is one of the hottest teams in the SEC, having won seven of eight.

Has anyone actually looked at that teams the Tigers have beaten? Yes, Auburn has turned its season around with a great run, but it has beaten ONE NCAA team during its streak -- Tennessee. Arkansas and Georgia won't make the postseason. Ole Miss and Mississippi State are likely NIT-bound. Bottom line: beating a streak of lower-tiered teams does not make an impact on the selection committee.

If Auburn can beat Kentucky or Florida in the conference tournament, it can take their place as one of the teams to make the NCAAs from the SEC.

It is important to remember that the selection committee DOES NOT award a certain number of bids to a conference. So, the argument that Auburn can take Florida or Kentucky's NCAA spot by beating either one of them in the SEC tournament is false. Auburn can look better than those two teams in a direct comparison, but it does not mean the Tigers have a better chance because the SEC should get 'X' number of teams.

Auburn has a certain intangible that doesn't show up in computer rankings like the RPI, which is too influential in the selection process.

Actually, they're an excellent way to take bias out of the process. It's tough to compare teams from difference conferences, some small, some big. It's hard to remove the prejudices that we have in our minds of how good certain teams are. For instance, Kentucky. If you beat Kentucky on a normal year, that win would carry a lot of weight. This year? That's really not the case. The Wildcats might have the name that makes people take notice, but they are a very borderline NCAA tournament candidate.

In that vein, Auburn's numbers do not stack up well with some other teams. I'll cite Lunardi, who nails the bracket pretty much dead on every year (plus, the man has a PhD in Bracketology, and I'm not going to argue with a doctor).

Here are Auburn's numbers in the main categories the selection group will look at:

RPI: 78, SOS: 80, Last 12: 8-4, vs. RPI top-50: 1-5, Good wins: Tennessee, Bad losses: Mercer (RPI 180)

(Note: the RPI numbers are courtesy of ESPN's duplicate formula, SOS is strength of schedule)

Now, the only thing Auburn really has going in its favor is an 8-4 record in its last 12, which the Tigers can improve by going deep into the SEC tournament. Keep in mind that the lowest RPI of an at-large team to ever make the field was 74.

Here are the resumes of the first four teams on the outside looking in, according to Lunardi:
  • Florida: RPI: 50, SOS: 99, Last 12: 6-6, vs. RPI top 50: 2-6
  • Michigan: RPI: 49, SOS: 10, Last 12: 5-7, vs. RPI top 50: 5-9
  • Minnesota: RPI: 39, SOS: 53, Last 12: 5-7, vs. RPI top 50: 4-6 (0 losses to RPI 100+)
  • San Diego State: RPI: 46, SOS: 56, Last 12: 7-5, vs. RPI top 50: 1-5
And the next four:
  • Cincinnati: RPI: 53, SOS: 19, Last 12: 7-5, vs. RPI top 50: 4-9
  • Maryland: RPI: 52, SOS: 26, Last 12: 6-6, vs. RPI top 50: 4-9 (two of those wins against No. 2 North Carolina and No. 8 Michigan State)
  • Texas A&M: RPI: 34, SOS: 38, Last 12: 6-6, vs. RPI top 50: 4-5
  • Kansas State: RPI: 74, SOS: 92, Last 12: 9-3, vs. RPI top 50: 3-5
Lunardi also considered the following teams: New Mexico, Notre Dame, Tulsa, Rhode Island, UAB, Temple, Saint Mary's, Niagara, Georgetown, Southern California, George Mason and Nevada.

That's 20 teams and Auburn still isn't in the conversation, nor should it, when you look at the numbers. With only a couple games left, that's way too much ground for the Tigers to make up, even if they beat LSU and a pair of top teams in the SEC tournament. They'll have to win it all to make the Big Dance, which is entirely possible the way they've been playing and when you consider how wide open the conference is. Just ask Georgia last year.

A more reasonable goal is to host an NIT game, which is a very real possibility. Considering the state of the program entering the year and the disappointing first half of the season, that's also an admirable accomplishment.

4 comments:

rossinalabama said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
rossinalabama said...

Bama's student section should wear real ray-ban's next time...those phony glasses didn't result in a win.

Chilton Tiger said...

I'm tickled pink that there's some excitement about the AU BBall team. Who would have though they would have even been talked about this late in the season and especially for the SEC tourney. I for one am excited to see how this team has developed under Lebo and think that momentum will carry over to next season regardless of whether or not we get into the dance.

Anonymous said...

Hosting an NIT game would be a major accomplishment for this bunch, IMO. Not to say I wouldn't rather seem them make the NCAA's, but I agree that the only way that will happen is if they win the SEC tourney.