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Thursday, March 12, 2009

Let the bubble watch begin

All the major conference tournaments gets into full swing today, so we at the War Eagle Extra will be keeping tabs on the teams on the bubble from the comfort of the couch this afternoon.

I wrote at length about Auburn's NCAA tournament chances today in the paper (spoiler: the Tigers are still long shots) and even put together a chart of the bubble teams that is difficult to read on the Internet (stupid tabs).

The bottom line is, Auburn has to win some games this weekend and hope a lot of other bubble teams don't do anything impressive.

Notre Dame already helped the Tigers, bowing out in the second round of the Big East tournament to West Virginia and pretty much closing its case as an at-large candidate.

While Auburn enjoys a rare first-round bye at the SEC tournament today, here are some other games that are going to have an impact on its NCAA candidacy:
  • Providence vs. Louisville, 12 p.m. EST: Friars need this win against a team many are saying could be a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs.
  • Northwestern vs. Minnesota, 12 p.m. EST: Both are bubble teams, but Minnesota has the better resume. Auburn's best hope is that the Wildcats knock off the Gophers and then lose to Michigan State in the second round. That scenario would weaken Minnesota's case and probably not do enough to get the Wildcats in.
  • Miami vs. Virginia Tech, 12 p.m. EST: Hokies have lost six of seven. 'Canes have a sub-.500 ACC record. The loser is in the NIT. The winner gets North Carolina, which it will probably have to beat to make the NCAAs.
  • Ole Miss vs. Kentucky, 1 p.m. EST: Rebels can put the final nail in the Wildcats coffin this afternoon.
  • Rice vs.Tulsa, 1 p.m. EST: Anything short of winning the Conference USA tournament (and in doing so, somehow beating Memphis) probably won't get the Golden Hurricane in the four-letter tournament.
  • Iowa vs. Michigan, 2:30 p.m. EST: The Wolverines are pretty much in if they can get past a 15-16 Iowa team (they have wins against Duke and UCLA that look pretty good). Lose, and they open up a big set of what-ifs.
  • St. Joseph's vs. Temple, 2:30 p.m. EST: At 19-11, the Owls can't afford to lose this one. Not in the Atlantic 10.
  • Arizona vs. Arizona State, 3 p.m. EST: Wildcats lost four straight late in the year to drop down to the bubble. A win against No. 23 Arizona State would look mighty good right now.
  • Texas vs. Kansas State, 3 p.m. EST: Six Big 12 teams are likely headed to the tournament. The Wildcats need to keep winning to make it seven.
  • Southern Miss vs. UAB, 3:30 p.m. EST: Blazers don't have any marquee wins. Like Tulsa, they probably have to win the C-USA tournament.
  • Indiana vs. Penn State, 5 p.m. EST: Beating a a 6-24 Indiana team won't do anything to get the Nittany Lions into the field. Losing would definitely knock them out, thought. That's a dangerous kind of game to play.
  • UNLV vs. San Diego State, 5:30 p.m. EST: One of these teams will watch its bubble pop this evening.
  • N.C. State vs. Maryland, 7 p.m. EST: You never know what you're going to get out of the Terps. They're capable of winning the ACC tournament but just as likely to lose by 20 in the first round. If gambling were legal, I would never wager money on this team.
  • Southern California vs. California, 9 p.m. EST: Trojans have to win and keep winning. They haven't done much to impress the committee during the regular season.
  • Arkansas vs. Florida, 9:45 p.m. EST: Must-win for the Gators, whose candidacy for the NCAA tournament I still find perplexing. Not a great RPI, not a great record vs. the RPI top 50 and not playing great basketball right now. Auburn gets the winner of this game.
  • Wyoming vs. New Mexico, 11:30 p.m. EST: Lobos are in the tournament right now in Joe Lunardi's projection. They won't be if they lose to the Cowboys tonight.

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