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Friday, March 13, 2009

Bubble watch is back!

Because it's important for some Auburn fans and because I don't really have anything better to do today, I'll be posting updates of fringe NCAA tournament teams again.

Just from yesterday, you can eliminate Miami, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Georgetown, Kansas State and Rhode Island from consideration. Although probably not completely done, Providence is a real long shot at this point.

That leaves 21 teams trying to grab eight spots, and Michigan and Minnesota probably wrapped up two of those yesterday. Like I said before, it's getting tight.

On to today's games to watch ...
  • Minnesota vs. Michigan State, 12 p.m. EST: Gophers might have punched their ticket yesterday, but a win against the Spartans would remove all doubt. MSU is playing for a one seed now that UConn, Pitt, Kansas and Oklahoma all stumbled.
  • Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina, 12 p.m. EST: Hokies need this one and got some good news. UNC guard Ty Lawson will not play because of a toe injury. That opens things up for Virginia Tech to steal a marquee win.
  • Kentucky vs. LSU, 1 p.m. EST: Wildcats absolutely need this to stay in contention for a tournament spot, but a win doesn't guarantee them that they'll get in.
  • Ohio State vs. Wisconsin, 2:30 p.m. EST: Both teams had first-round byes (the results of the 11-team setup). Although the Badgers are assumed to be heading to the tournament, the Buckeyes have a similar resume. Wisconsin has a 38 RPI, four wins against the RPI top-50 and a strength of schedule of 15. OSU has a 37 RPI, five wins against the RPI top-50 and a strength of schedule of 34.
  • Mississippi State vs. South Carolina, 3:15 p.m. EST: Gamecocks have to win to stay in consideration for an at-large bid. It's always nice to add a victory against a team that's won 20 games.
  • UAB vs. Tulsa, 6:30 p.m. EST: A bubble elimination game! The loser's out. The winner gets a chance to punch its ticket by probably having to play Memphis in the C-USA title game. Good luck.
  • Michigan vs. Illinois, 6:30 p.m. EST: The Wolverines have split with the Illini this year. While they're already probably into the tournament thanks to a 28-point clobbering of Iowa yesterday, a win here would make it all but official.
  • Temple vs. Xavier, 6:30 p.m. EST: A big game for bubble watchers, since Xavier will be in the tournament regardless of what happens. Temple's got a pretty good resume, but a win against the A-10's top team would help it a lot come selection Sunday.
  • Maryland vs. Wake Forest, 7 p.m. EST: Gary Williams always seems to be on the bubble with his teams, but he's played his way into the tournament before. Maryland only lost by two to Wake in the teams' only matchup this year.
  • San Diego State vs. BYU, 9 p.m. EST: I don't really understand Aztecs' strong candidacy too much (RPI 43, SOS: 57, top 50: 1-5, top 100: 4-7), but the experts claim San Diego State is right in there. It probably needs to win this game, though.
  • Penn State vs. Purdue, 9 p.m. EST: The Nittany Lions beat a JV team in Indiana on Thursday, which I doubt will impress anyone. If they beat the No. 24 Boilermakers, that would open some eyes.
  • Florida vs. Auburn, 9:45 p.m. EST: And who could forget the whole reason I bothered to put this list up on the blog. After days of waiting, the Tigers finally get their shot. I think it's safe to say the loser of this game is out of contention. the winner probably still hasn't done enough to get in, but certainly makes its case a lot stronger. I think I'm going to try live blogging this game from couch (note: not in my underwear and not in my mother's basement). So tune in later and feel free to comment.
  • Eastern Washington vs. St. Mary's, 10 p.m. EST: Ahh, the game St. Mary's scheduled at the last second so it could nab another win and maybe impress the tournament committee now that guard Patty Mills is back. I'm sure everyone will be tuning in to a West Coast game that starts at 10 p.m.
  • USC vs. UCLA, 11:30 p.m. EST : The Trojans have to win this to stay in consideration, I think.

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