Mississippi State got the SEC's automatic berth by beating Tennessee today, so that leaves two at-large berths for seven teams to compete for, according to the experts.
Let's look at each individually, in the order that ESPN's Joe Lunardi, who is rarely wrong, projects them to finish. You could make a case for or against pretty much any team on this list, so it will be interesting to see it play out:
LAST TWO IN
- Maryland (20-13, RPI: 54, SOS: 22, 4-8 vs. RPI top 50, 8-11 vs. RPI top 100, L12: 6-6) The Terps finished under .500 in the ACC (7-9) but have more marquee wins than anybody on this list, having beaten Michigan State, North Carolina and, just recently, Wake Forest. They also have a non-conference win against Michigan, another team destined for the tournament. Maryland stumbled in its season finale with a road loss to a terrible Virginia team, but it made up for it by winning two games in the ACC tournament and playing Duke to the wire. If the committee is looking for teams that can compete with the nation's elite. it would have to put the Terps in.
- Creighton (26-7, RPI: 40, SOS: 111, 2-2 vs. RPI top 50, 9-5 vs. RPI top 100, L12: 11-1) The Blue Jays did themselves a terrible disservice by bowing out of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament in the semifinals after tying for the best record in the league during the regular season. They finished the season hot, though, winning 11 straight prior to that loss. Like most mid-majors, though, the question is if this team did enough in its non-conference schedule. Creighton beat Dayton and Illinois State for its two wins against teams in the RPI top 50 and was 9-5 against the top 100. Plus, there's this stat, courtesy of ESPN: Only six teams have won 26 games in a season and been left out of the NCAA field.
- Saint Mary's (24-6, RPI: 48, SOS: 159, 2-3 vs. RPI top 50, 3-4 vs. RPI top 100, L12: 8-4) The Gaels' case really comes down to the health of guard Patty Mills, who broke his hand earlier this year and only returned a few games ago. The school went as far as to schedule a last-second game against Eastern Washington to prove to the committee that Mills is back and healthy. He scored 19 points on 6-for-14 shooting in a 20-point win against Eastern Washington, but left some doubts to his health status. St. Mary's is 20-3 in games Mills played in this year, with a valuable win against fellow bubble team San Diego State. The Gaels did lose to Gonzaga three times, though, including an ugly 83-58 rout in the West Coast Conference finals with Mills in the lineup.
- Penn State (22-11, RPI: 70, SOS: 119, 6-9 vs. RPI top 50, 7-10 vs. RPI top 100, L12: 6-6) Apparently, Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota, despite shaky resumes, are considered to be in to the tournament, leaving the Nittany Lions out on an island as the Big Ten's straggler. Penn State would be the Big Ten's eighth team if it were to make the field. Remember, the committee does not take into account conference affiliation. It compares the teams straight up and does require that conferences get a certain number of teams in the field. Pros: Penn State went 10-8 in a deep Big Ten and had six wins over top-50 RPI teams. Cons: in the non-conference portion of the schedule, the Nittany Lioins didn't play anyone. Their non-conference SOS is 313, with their best win coming against Mount St. Mary's (RPI: 118).
- Arizona (19-13, RPI: 62, SOS: 36, 6-10 vs. RPI top 50, 8-12 vs. RPI top 100, L12: 7-5) The Wildcats' nations'-best 24-year run of NCAA tournament appearances is in serious jeopardy. 'Zona has a bunch of good wins at home (Kansas, Washington, UCLA, USC and San Diego State) and a neutral site victory against Gonzaga. But on the road, the 'Cats were just 2-9. And if the committee weighs how a team is playing heading into the tournament, it doesn't bode well for this team, which lost five of its last six coming down the stretch.
- San Diego State (21-9, RPI: 35, SOS: 35, 2-6 vs. RPI top 50, 7-9 vs. RPI to 100, L12: 8-4) The Aztecs came oh-so-close to just making it official in the Mountain West championship game against Utah, a game it lost by two. They have a good RPI and strength of schedule, but are lacking in quality wins, with just two against the RPI top 50 (Utah and BYU). Their non-conference schedule was a little light, though, ranking 89th. None of those wins came against teams in the RPI top 100.
- Auburn (21-11, RPI 62, SOS: 59, 2-4 vs. RPI top 50, 6-10 vs. RPI top 100, L12: 9-3) And finally the Tigers, a team where subjectivity will have to play a big role if they are to get invited. On paper, the team doesn't look good, lacking in quality wins and with relatively a relatively low RPI and SOS. Fifteen of Auburn's 21 Division I victories have come against teams ranked outside of the RPI top 100 and the three chances it had at beating quality teams in non-conference action -- Dayton, Northern Iowa and Xavier -- all ended up as losses. But that was early. This was an entirely different team down the stretch, when it reeled off nine wins in 10 games. For the Tigers to make the tournament, they're going to need the committee to go with its gut and select a team that can make some noise in the tournament because it is playing so well (Of the ESPN panelists, Digger Phelps seems to be making this argument the loudest). Remember, it's a 10-person committee that makes this decision, so there is bound to be debate and many different viewpoints. I'm sure the Tigers will be given a long, hard look for the tournament. It's a long shot, but it's a shot, which is more than Auburn could have asked for two months ago.
Also, not to put negative thoughts out there, but the NIT bracket announcement will take place on ESPNU at 9 p.m. EST.
(UPDATE 2:28 p.m.) One at-large team just got its hopes extinguished. Mississippi State finished off its improbably SEC run by beating Tennessee in the tournament championship game, earning an automatic berth into the Big Dance. That lowers the number of at-large bids remaining to two according to the experts, making the seven teams vying for one of them sweat a little bit more. Auburn fans have to be upset about this. Tennessee, which couldn't miss Saturday, shot 29 percent from the field today, going 8-for-27 from 3-point range. Twisting the knife a little more is the fact that the Tigers beat Mississippi State TWICE this year, at home by 15 and on the road by 18. Maybe the committee takes that into account, since the Bulldogs appear to be a pretty good team. Then again, maybe not, since they weren't NCAA-bound if not for this late run. What is for sure is that one fewer berth is available for at-large teams, which is awful news for teams like Auburn.
(UPDATE 4:43 p.m.) We're 15 minutes from the selection show and things are looking good. Lunardi, who as we've mentioned before is usually correct, is now not even considering Auburn as one of his six at-large finalists for the final two spots.
Tigers fans can hold out hope, but come showtime, you don't want to see any of these teams go up on the board: Maryland, Creighton, Saint Mary's, Penn State, Arizona or San Diego State. I'd also question the legitimacy of these teams that Lunardi has as part of his last four in: Wisconsin and Minnesota.
5:02: I forgot how much they draw this show out. They've got to go through the 1 seeds first and then discuss them. Louisville's the overall top seed in the Midwest. Then CBS has to introduce the bracket and how it works, as if anybody watching this doesn't have a clue.
5:03: Your other 1 seeds: Pittsburgh in the East, North Carolina in the South and UConn in the West. That last one is kind of surprising. I thought Memphis and it's 20-something game winning streak would have earned a top spot.
5:04: Just so you know, that's three 1 seeds out of the Big East, which is a lot. I know that conference is pretty good and pretty top-heavy this year, but I think it might be getting a little too much respect right now.
5:07: CBS just showed camera shots of nine different schools it will be going to for reactions. Auburn was not one of them. All of them appear to be safe tournament picks, so I'm guessing we're not going to see any sad reaction shots.
5:09: Morehead State and two local Columbus kids -- Steven Peterson and Terrance Hill -- gets the play-in game against Alabama State. It's nice to make the field, but a slap in the face to have to play in the play-in game. I'd suggest the NCAA get rid of it altogether.
5:11: Arizona is in and Lunardi is wrong on one of his picks. The Wildcats make it 25 straight years in the tournament in what is kind of a shocker. Bad news for Auburn that 'Zona is in. Really, the Tigers can only hope to get one final spot.
5:12: Your full Midwest region:
- 1. Louisville vs. 16. Alabama State/Morehead State
- 8. Ohio State vs. 9. Siena
- 5. Utah vs. 12. Arizona
- 4. Wake Forest vs. 13. Cleveland State
- 3. Kansas vs. 14. North Dakota State
- 6. West Virginia vs. 11. Dayton
- 7. Boston College vs. 10 USC
- 2. Michigan State vs. 15. Robert Morris
5:21: On to the West region
- 1. UConn vs. 16. Chattanooga
- 8. BYU vs. 9. Texas A&M
- 5. Purdue vs. 12. Northern Iowa
- 4. Washington vs. 13. Mississippi State
- 3. Missouri vs. 14. Cornell
- 6. Marquette vs. 11.Utah State
- 7. California vs. 10. Maryland
- 2. Memphis vs. 15. Cal State Northridge
5:23: The TV guys and I are in agreement: this looks like a UConn-Memphis region final in the making. I'm not crazy about Purdue and Washington. Yes, Missouri won the Big 12 conference tournament, but it didn't take down the top teams. Baylor and Oklahoma State did that work for them. And Marquette isn't the same without Dominic James.
5:28: The East is up next:
- 1. Pittsburgh vs. 16. East Tennessee State
- 8. Oklahoma State vs. 9. Tennessee
- 5. Florida State vs. 12 Wisconsin
- 4. Xavier vs. 13. Portland State
- 3. Villanova vs. 14. American
- 6. UCLA vs. 11. VCU
- 7. Texas vs. 10. Minnesota
- 2. Duke vs. Binghamton
5:29: Seth Davis and I must be sharing brain waves. I like Florida State as a sleeper in this bracket. Pittsburgh's a tough out. Duke is Duke, but the Blue Devils haven't been that good in the tournament lately. And you know they don't want to play VCU in the third round (remember the game a couple years ago?). I think this one is Pittsburgh's to lose, though. That is one tough team, even if it did bow out of the Big East tournament early. They should be well-rested in that case.
5:37: And finally, the South:
- 1. North Carolina vs. 16. Radford
- 8. LSU vs. 9. Butler
- 5. Illinois vs. 12. Western Kentucky
- 4. Gonzaga vs. 13. Akron
- 3. Syracuse vs. 14. Stephen F. Austin
- 6. Arizona State vs. 11. Temple
- 7. Clemson vs. 10. Michigan
- 2. Oklahoma vs. 15. Morgan State
5:43: Based on the seedings, we can figure out who the last two teams in were. They were on the 12 line, since Western Kentucky and Northern Iowa were automatic bids. That means the last two in were Wisconsin and Arizona.
Wisconsin (full disclosure, my alma mater) really wasn't in anybody's discussion as being right on the bubble, but a loss to Ohio State in its only Big Ten tournament game really dropped the Badgers down. UW was 18-12 with an RPI of 45, a SOS of 20, a 4-10 record vs. the RPI top 50 and a 9-11 record against the top 100. Bo Ryan's crew played a tough non-conference schedule with games against UConn, Texas and Marquette, but it lost all of those games. Its best non-conference win was a nail-biter against Virginia Tech.
Arizona is a bigger question mark. Yes, the Wildcats beat Gonzaga and Kansas in the non-conference portion of the schedule, but they didn't beat anybody of significance on the road, finishing with a 2-9 record. That should matter. 'Zona's other significant numbers: 19-13, RPI of 36, SOS of 40, 6-10 vs. RPI top 50, 8-12 vs. top 100. BUT, it lost five of its last six games coming down the stretch. If Auburn fans have any quibbling to do, it's with that fact right there.
5:45: SEC commissioner and selection committee chairman Mike Slive is up next. Some SEC fans probably think he has some 'splainin' to do.
5:47: Another something of note: Dayton was one of the final four teams in. Imagine if Auburn hadn't lost to the Flyers in overtime back in November. You know, the game where Dayton was 0-for-24 from 3-point range. That's going to sting for a while.
5:56: Slive speaks. The finer points:
- Louisville winning the Big East tournament clinched the No. 1 overall seed.
- The top two lines were fairly consistent but not decided until today.
- He rattled off several teams with injuries that affected their seasons, but Auburn and Rasheem Barrett's groin problem got no mention.
- "We look at teams. We don't look at labels. It's not about mid-major teams or major teams. It's about teams."
- Message that was delivered: "It was your entire body of work." It favored teams that played away and won games early. "Those kind of wins will make a difference." There's Auburn's non-pick in a nutshell.
- On the bubble teams: "It's not a team against another team, but a group of teams." Don't know exactly what that means. Strange interview there.
1 comment:
Did you happen to count how many time the phrase "body of work" was used during the selection show on CBS? I'm thinking that the over/under had to be 100 or higher.
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