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Thursday, March 12, 2009

Bubble update: Friday at 12:41 a.m.

This will be a running thread that keeps tabs on how the other bubble teams fare in their conference tournaments.

I'll use ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi's projections as a baseline (the man is almost never wrong, after all). I've updated the records and RPIs of the respective teams. Remember, there are only eight remaining at-large spots up for grabs, according to the expert.

I've crossed off teams at the bottom who I think are done after poor showings in their conference tournaments. That leaves 24 still in contention.

(UPDATE 2:01 p.m.) Kentucky wins, keeping its rather slim hopes alive. I moved Providence out of the Stick A Fork in 'Em category. I don't like the Friars' chances, but I don't think they are completely out of consideration yet.

(UPDATE 3:36 p.m.): Michigan looks like it locked up a bid with a 73-45 beatdown of Iowa in the Big Ten tournament. The Wolverines have non-conference wins against Duke and UCLA, something most bubble teams are lacking. Temple kept its hopes alive with a win against St. Joseph's. Not it get the A-10's top seed Xavier in the next round. A win there would be a nice addition to the Owls' resume.

(UPDATE 3:59 p.m.) Big news for bubble teams: Arizona just finished losing to Arizona State. Lunardi had the Wildcats as the last team into the NCAAs. While this does not necessarily mean they are out, it certainly opens the door for teams to play their way past them.

(UPDATE 4:20 p.m.) Another one bites the dust. Kansas State lost to Texas 61-58 in the Big 12 quarterfinals. The Wildcats have a terrible RPI and needed a couple wins to make the field. I'm dropping them from the list of candidates.

(UPDATE 4:54 p.m.) UAB just barely stayed alive, beating a .500 Southern Miss team in overtime after hitting a late basket to send the game to an extra session. The Blazers are walking a fine line, with ZERO wins against the RPI top 50 and just two against the top 100. They're probably going to have to beat Memphis in the C-USA championship to get in (that would give them an automatic berth anyway).

(UPDATE 6:08 p.m.) Penn State knocked off the rec ball team that Indiana has been trotting out all year. That certainly doesn't get the Nittany Lions in the tournament, but losing that game would have definitely knocked them out.

(UPDATE 6:32 p.m.) Big bubble shake-up out in the Mountain West following UNLV's 71-57 loss to San Diego State. The Rebels were a team Lunardi had in the tournament entering the day. It will be interesting to see how much they drop after losing to a team Lunardi had as the first team out of the field. You've got to think at least temporarily, this puts San Diego State in.

(UPDATE 7:30 p.m.) Rhode Island lost to Duquesne, sticking a fork in the Rams' hopes. I'm going to put them in the appropriate category of not having a chance. Things have changed in the last few minutes, but Memphis is struggling with Tulane. Bubble teams DO NOT want Memphis to lose that game under any circumstances.

(UPDATE 7:56 p.m.) Maryland survived a first-round ACC clash with N.C. State and will get a shot at Wake Forest tomorrow. You never know what you're going to get from the Terps, who have marquee wins against Michigan State and North Carolina this year, along with a loss to Morgan State. There's also that 7-9 regular season ACC record that's holding them back.

(UPDATE 10:09 p.m.) Good and bad news for Auburn as the late games start finishing up. Bad news: Southern Cal kept its tournament hopes alive with a win against California. Good news: Bubble teams around the country averted disaster when Utah, the MWC's top seed, narrowly avoided a quarterfinal upset against TCU. The Utes are a tournament lock right now with an RPI of 11, so if they would have lost, one of the eight up-for-grabs at-large spots would have automatically gone to the MWC champion.

(UPDATE 10:52 p.m.) Florida beats Arkansas and will play Auburn in the second round of the tournament. This is probably good for the Tigers, who can basically end the Gators' hopes for an NCAA tournament bid while improving their own chances with a win tomorrow. Plus, the better the opponent, the better the win will look on the resume. Of course, it makes winning three games in three days that much more difficult.

(UPDATE 12:41 a.m.) Hopefully you saw part of that Syracuse-UConn six-overtime thriller, which might have been one of the most entertaining basketball games I've ever seen. Anyway, last update of the night (make that morning), and it's a significant one. Steve Rushin's favorite team, New Mexico, lost to Wyoming in the MWC quarterfinals, a damaging loss for a team that was one of Lunardi's last eight teams into the tournament. Does this knock the Lobos out? Again, not necessarily, but it gives a bunch of teams the chance to make an impression while New Mexico sits around idly.

LUNARDI'S LAST EIGHT IN (entering Thursday)
  • Ohio State 20-9, RPI 34: Opportunity to knock off a tournament team in Wisconsin
  • UNLV 21-10, RPI 56: Now at the mercy of the committee after quarterfinal exit in Mountain West
  • Michigan 20-12, RPI 42: Probably punched its ticket after 28-point drubbing of Iowa
  • Minnesota 20-9, RPI 41: Might have locked up a spot with win against Northwestern; Michigan State up next
  • New Mexico 21-11, RPI 58: Lobos have to sit and wait now after losing to Wyoming
  • South Carolina 21-8, RPI 49: Mississippi State up next for Gamecocks
  • Penn State 21-10, RPI 66: Will have to do more than beat Indiana to impress the committee; Purdue's up next
  • Arizona 19-13, RPI 54: Loss to state rival ASU means 'Zona will have to root hard against some of the other teams below
LUNARDI'S NEXT TEAMS OUT (IN ORDER)
  • San Diego State 20-8, RPI 43: Chance to really make itself heard from with game against MWC's top seed, BYU, on Friday
  • Creighton 26-7, RPI 39: Blue Jays' season is done, have to hope some teams lose
  • Florida 22-9, RPI 48: Still alive after win against Arkansas, has to beat Auburn to be considered
  • Davidson 25-7, RPI 69: Same thing as Creighton
  • Maryland 19-12, RPI 67: Win against Wake would make a lot of people take notice
STAYIN' ALIVE
  • Temple 20-11, RPI 36: Topped St. Joseph's to reach 20 wins; gets Xavier next in important matchup
  • Virginia Tech 18-13, RPI 63: Ended recent slide with 65-47 win against Miami in ACC tournament; No. 1 North Carolina up next for Hokies in must-win
  • Kentucky 20-12, RPI 79: Win against Ole Miss still won't get 'Cats into the tourney
  • Tulsa 22-9, RPI 62: Easily beat Rice in the C-USA tourney, but it will need more than that
  • UAB 22-10, RPI 44: Tulsa is up next in what is probably an elimination game
  • Southern Cal 19-12, RPI 61: Stayed in contention by beating Cal, will play either UCLA or Washington State
HASN'T PLAYED YET
  • Auburn 21-10, RPI 64: After idle Thursday, gets another shot at the Gators
SLIP SLIDING
  • Providence 19-13, RPI 71: Lost to Louisville, the Big East's top seed, in a game it needed to win
ALL DONE PLAYING, NOW JUST WAITING
  • Niagara 26-8, RPI 51: Has to hope a lot of things fall exactly the right way, and even that might not be enough
PUT A FORK IN 'EM
  • Miami 17-12, RPI 52: Needed an ACC tournament run; instead, got waxed by Virginia Tech
  • Notre Dame 17-13, RPI 73: Borderline candidate is out after short Big East tourney stay
  • Georgetown 16-14, RPI 59: Good strength of schedule, nothing else does in Hoyas
  • Northwestern 17-13, RPI 70: Ousted in first round of Big Ten by Minnesota
  • Kansas State 21-11, RPI 77: Needed to beat Texas in the Big 12 tourney to keep hopes alive but lost by three
  • Rhode Island 22-10, RPI 65: Bowed out of A-10 quarters to Duquesne

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