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Monday, August 2, 2010

2010 opponent preview: Arkansas

Only one more day until Auburn's players report ... and then several more weeks until we actually get to see anyone play in a game. The blog's opponent previews will help fill your football appetite in the meantime.

Arkansas is up today.

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Arkansas Razorbacks
  • Head coach: Bobby Petrino (3rd season at Arkansas, 13-12; 7th season overall, 54-21 at Louisville and Arkansas)
  • 2009 record: 8-5 (3-5 SEC, t-4th West), beat East Carolina 20-17 in the Liberty Bowl
  • Returning starters: 16 (9 offense, 7 defense)
  • Total offense: 427.3 ypg (3rd SEC, 20th nationally)
  • Total defense: 401.2 ypg (12th SEC, 89th nationally)
  • Series: Auburn leads 10-8-1
  • Last meeting: Arkansas won 44-23 in Fayetteville last year
  • Consensus prediction: Second in the SEC West
Five-week schedule glimpse
  • Oct. 2: Off
  • Oct. 9: Texas A&M (in Dallas)
  • Oct. 16: at Auburn
  • Oct. 23: Ole Miss
  • Oct. 30: Vanderbilt
There isn't a more popular team in the preseason than Arkansas, which prognosticators are expecting to thrive in Petrino's third year, with Heisman hopeful Ryan Mallett under center. Sometimes the hype is warranted (Alabama the last couple years; sometimes it's not (Ole Miss last season). What we know is that the Razorbacks have a great offense, perhaps the best in the nation. But they also have a defense that's ranked last in the SEC each of the last two seasons. That group is going to have to show big improvement in the Hogs want to be the sleeper team everyone envisions.

To see if there's a chance that could happen, I went to Brandon Marcello, the online sports editor for the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette and Northwest Arkansas Media. Read him on his blog here (how about this for a great name: The Slophouse) and follow him on Twitter here. Here's a brief Q&A he did for the blog:

AB: What is the ceiling for strong-armed quarterback Ryan Mallett, who threw for 3,624 yards and 30 touchdowns last year? Will he perform better than he did away from Razorback Stadium last year? How legitimate are his Heisman hopes?
BM: Mallett has a good a chance as any quarterback on the national scene this year to impress, but hurting him are his performances on the road last season and a college football landscape loaded with great quarterbacks this season. Mallett certainly has Heisman-worthy talent, and he bolsters a leadership quality that has never been seen before at the quarterback position at Arkansas, but what will hurt him is the performance of his brothers in arms at Washington, Stanford and Boise State. Against weaker competition, Jake Locker, Andrew Luck and Kellen Moore will go toe-to-toe every week with Mallett's high numbers.

Couple that with the opportunity for Boise State (if it can get past Virginia Tech) to go undefeated with a schedule easier than Arkansas' SEC slate, and you can see why Mallett is going to have a hard time reaching New York in December. Personally, I think Mallett has to win at least 11 games to win the Heisman. The competition, along with the stigma of being a star at Arkansas, is working against him. Just ask Darren McFadden, who probably should have won the Heisman his junior year. If Mallett is going to win the Heisman, Arkansas has to do something it never has before — win an SEC championship.
AB: Arkansas has loads of offensive weapons besides Mallett. Who are the most dangerous players of that group and who might play a bigger role than expected this year?
BM: I entered fall camp last season with the belief that Joe Adams was the best receiver on the team and was set to have a breakout year. He was doing just that before he suffered a minor stroke, and returned to the field with some blistering numbers. Greg Childs enters the season as the receiver with a target on his back, but, with the Razorbacks' love of spreading the ball around, I see Adams having a breakout year. Also look out for Ronnie Wingo at running back. Still, I am of the belief that Dennis Johnson may just be the best tailback on the team and the player most suited to run out of the Pistol formation at Arkansas. We'll see how that develops, but the Razorbacks are definitely stacked on offense.

Another player to watch out for is tight end D.J. Williams, a familiar face. He didn't put up the numbers like he did his sophomore season, but credit that decline to a quarterback looking to throw deep more often than not. If Mallett hits on all cylinders this season and makes better decisions, look for another 600- or 700-yard campaign from the SEC's best tight end.
AB: Bobby Petrino has learned after two seasons in the SEC that offense will only get you so far. Is there any hope for a defense that's ranked dead last in the SEC in total yards the last two years? And furthermore, does Petrino even give the defense much thought?
BM: There's nowhere else to go but up after finishing 89th nationally in total defense. Petrino talked more about defense than he did offense at booster club meetings this spring, and preached that the Razorbacks must bolster a unit ranked in the top 20 for Arkansas to be a championship caliber team. What's going to help that more than anything, I think, is the development of a running game. Arkansas is high-powered on offense, sure, but it still struggled to run the ball at times last season. If the Razorbacks can melt the clock, hit the big plays and still score a lot of points, the defense will be fresh and confident.

The addition of Isaac Madison – perhaps Arkansas' best cover corner — after being sideline last year with a knee injury should help, and sophomore Darius Winston finally showed some of his five-star potential in the spring. The big question for me is at linebacker and the interior of the defensive line. It all starts with pressure, which is something the Razorbacks improved on late last season against the likes of Texas A&M and, most notably, Florida.
AB: The Razorbacks are a becoming a popular darkhorse pick in the SEC West. How has the team handled higher expectations? Is it something they openly talk about or do they not want to get ahead of themselves?
BM: This is the first Arkansas team I've seen that has completely embraced the high expectations. Petrino doesn't shy away from it, and he continually repeats that this program has the chance to do something special in 2010. I think we saw the difference in philosophies at SEC media days last week when Petrino welcomed the talk, while Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt downplayed high hopes and instead decided to focus on how to handle failure.

That's what irked Arkansas fans the last three years of Nutt's tenure, especially when the Hogs had the best backfield in SEC history (McFadden and Felix Jones) carrying the ball. Ultimately, Arkansas fell short of championship aspirations and usually crumbled late in the season. And while Petrino and Co. are embracing the high expectations, it remains to be seen if they can live up to the fans' fever-pitched enthusiasm.
AB: The West appears to be brutal this season, with defending national champion Alabama still atop the division, Auburn and LSU vying for second-tier positioning and the Mississippi schools lurking. Can Petrino have his breakthrough season in Year 3 and push the Razorbacks in to the upper echelon of SEC teams or will it take more time?
BM: This year, as much as any at Louisville, will define Petrino as a coach. Sure, he won a BCS game while coaching the Cardinals against Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl, but can he take a program in the strongest conference in the country to the BCS? Petrino has the talent to push Arkansas over the top this year, but you're exactly right about the SEC West. This is the toughest division of any in the nation, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a logjam near the top, with a one- or two-loss team in conference play representing the West in the SEC championship game.

I think it's down to Alabama, Auburn and Arkansas. And looking at the schedule, Auburn has the upper hand. It's going to be a fun season in the West. Will Alabama repeat or will another program break through? The time is now for Arkansas and Petrino. If this program is ever going to win a championship, this is the year to do it.
Another one down. Big thanks to Brandon, who had some very in-depth answers. This will be one of the most interesting games on Auburn's schedule. The Tigers have lost three of four to Arkansas, including two at home. So strange things have happened in this series of late. We know this, though: the scoreboard operator should have his hands full in this one.

Up next: Sticking in the SEC West with LSU.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

The Arkansas offense perhaps the best in the nation? I'm not buying it. They'll be good, no doubt...maybe even very good. They may even have the best offensive mind (in Petrino) in the nation. But this isn't the Big East and they just don't have the horses.

The best offense in the nation is never about schemes, it's about talent. And it's about having a defense that consistently puts it in good position to score. Petrino will do a good job of getting the most out of his players, but their season will be about what it was last year.

The most talented teams in the SEC are Bama and LSU...we're coming on strong, but not there yet. But I guarantee you by the end of the season it'll be these teams pushing for the West.

Anonymous said...

Lsu has alot of talent but they just don't have the leader behind center. They will be average this yr. Auburn will be a quality team but after watching the team last yr play teams it seems like they just dont run the offense as fast as gus wants them to. You will have a very good back in fannin and the great freshmen from Arkansas but can you outscore the hogs. I just dont think so. They have the most explosive offense in the conference by far and have more play makes on offense, that is just a fact. It is going to be a good game and the team that wins will be in the top two in the west. that could be a good spot because the east winner is going to have at least one loss and the loss in the championship game that will put a one loss second place team in the west in the bcs.