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Tuesday, August 3, 2010

2010 opponent preview: LSU

Auburn's players report this evening as football practice officially gets underway, but we still have a few more opponent previews to get through before we're finished.

LSU is the latest entry.

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LSU Tigers
  • Head coach: Les Miles (6th season at LSU, 51-15; 10th season overall, 79-35 at Oklahoma State and LSU)
  • 2009 record: 9-4 (5-3 SEC, 2nd West), lost to Penn State 19-17 in Capital One Bowl
  • Returning starters: 10 (6 offense, 4 defense)
  • Total offense: 304.5 ypg (12th SEC, 112th nationally)
  • Total defense: 327.6 ypg (6th SEC, 26th nationally)
  • Series: LSU leads 24-19-1
  • Last meeting: LSU won 31-10 in Baton Rouge last year
  • Consensus prediction: Third in the SEC West
Five-week schedule glimpse
  • Oct. 9: at Florida
  • Oct. 16: McNeese State
  • Oct. 23: at Auburn
  • Oct. 30: Off
  • Nov. 6: Alabama
LSU is a hard team to figure out. Is this the team that is part of the SEC's recent streak of national championships or the one that's gone .500 in conference play the last two seasons? Is Miles a good coach with a gambler streak in him or is he running on fumes now that Nick Saban's haul of players have worked their way through the program? Is this a team that will have a bounce back year or will it be the one that pushes LSU boosters past the point of no return with Miles? That's a lot of question marks, and the game against Auburn in October will probably go a long way in answering them. Last year's blowout in Baton Rouge broke a five-year string of close games, some coming down to the final seconds. With Auburn on the rise and LSU trying to maintain its standing in the highly-competitive SEC West, this one could be another classic.

To get the scoop on LSU, I went to beat writer Randy Rosetta of The Advocate in Baton Rouge. Read him on the paper's Tiger Tracks football blog, peruse his columns here or read all the paper's LSU coverage here. You can also follow him on Twitter here. Here's a Q&A he did for the blog:

AB: LSU is 17-9 since winning the national title in 2007. It's hard to believe fans could grow tired of Les Miles in that time — well, maybe not after how he handled the clock at the end of the Ole Miss game — but it appears there are legitimate grumblings with the coach. What do you see as the reason for the mild downturn in the program's play of late? And do you think Miles' tenure in Baton Rouge is at a crossroads this year?
RR: Yeah, the 31 months that have come and gone since that day in the Superdome have offered an awful lot of change and an interesting rollercoaster ride for Les and the Tigers. The primary reasons for the downturn — and some of these have been fixed along the way — are inexperience at quarterback, a lack of depth on the offensive line and losing Bo Pelini as the defensive coordinator.

The Pelini issue was resolved last season when John Chavis came aboard and got LSU’s defense back on track and I expect LSU will continue to show signs of progress in his second season. On the o-line, there’s still not a ton of experienced depth, although there is a ton of talent. Miles and his staff have done well converting defensive linemen to offense to plug some gaps. The Tigers still have to get better up there. That leaves the QB issue, which is still LSU’s Achilles' heel — until and unless Jordan Jefferson consistently shows he can be an effective SEC signal caller, which leads to …
AB: Jefferson had an up-and-down 2009, brilliant at times, an enigma at others. How solidly entrenched is he as LSU's starter, especially with fellow junior Jarrett Lee as a viable alternative to step under center if needed?
RR: Not sure brilliant is a word I would’ve chosen. [AB edit: in my defense, I saw him throttle Auburn] He had some moments where his talent was tantalizing and he got the job done. There were many more when he looked lost and confused. Still, he is the starter unless he gets hurt of the offense just doesn’t show any signs of progress this season — in other words looks a lot like last season. Should the Tigers remain stuck in the mud, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Lee gets another trial by fire to see if he’s outgrown the nervousness of playing on the SEC stage. Lee has a better arm than Jefferson and is a better fit for a pass-first scheme, but he would have to limit the turnovers tat plagued him when he started eight games as a redshirt freshman in 2008 to be a viable replacement.
AB: How do the Tigers intend to turn around an offense that sunk to 112th in the nation last year, averaging only 304.5 yards per game? Will play-makers like Russell Shepard, now that he's at a defined position, emerge? And will it even matter unless an offensive line that allowed 37 sacks last year shows drastic improvement?
RR: Shepard and Rueben Randle combine with Terrence Toliver to give LSU one of the best receiving corps in the SEC, and redshirt freshman Michael Ford is a home-run threat in the backfield. Plus, LSU will have a more athletic tight end in Deangelo Peterson. So, yes, there are ingredients in place for the Tigers to upgrade their offense.

But the quarterback spot has to be better and, yes, the offensive line has a lot of doubts and criticism to answer. The line never jelled last season as a run-blocking unit, and Jefferson’s tendency to hold onto the ball too long on passing plays contributed to the high sack total. Jefferson needs to evolve as a quarterback and be willing to quickly check down to his second and third options and get rid of the ball or tuck and run. If he does those two things, that should reduce the sacks and that leaves better run-blocking up to the big guys up front.
AB: LSU is always loaded with big, athletic defenders, like preseason All-SEC first-teamers like linebacker Kelvin Sheppard and cornerback Patrick Peterson. What will be the key for the defensive unit's success and will it be enough to carry the team if the offense doesn't come around?
RR: You hit on two of the biggest keys, because Sheppard and Peterson are as good at their positions as anybody in the country. The big keys are on a new crew of defensive ends and a rebuilt secondary, which has to replace playmaker Chad Jones. LSU struggled to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks last season and that gave the passer time to find open receivers even though Peterson often had one receiver completely taken out of the equation. With junior-college transfer Ken Adams and redshirt freshman Sam Montgomery on the ends, as well as talented backups in Michael Brockers and Keke Mingo, LSU will be faster and more athletic and should be able to put more heat on the QB.

The ripple effect should allow Chavis to match Peterson and Mo Claiborne — the new starter at right corner — with receivers in man coverage and free up the linebackers to increase the pass rush even more. Claiborne is the new starter in the secondary, with Brandon Taylor, a former starter at corner, shifting to safety to give LSU better pass coverage. All of that is tied into everybody on defense being a year more familiar with Chavis’ system. As noted above, the Tigers got better on defense last season as they learned on the fly and now they have a full season of film and two springs under Chavis to identify what he wants them to do.
AB: The Tigers play eight bowl teams from 2009, including a difficult opener in Atlanta against North Carolina and another non-conference game against West Virginia. Is it reasonable to expect LSU to improve on its 9-4 record from last year or would a similar record be reason to celebrate in Baton Rouge this season?
RR: My prediction is another 9-4 season — 8-4 in the regular season and a bowl victory in January. I think LSU will stay the same in the SEC as last season, 5-3 with losses to at Florida, at Auburn and home against Alabama, with a non-conference loss to WVU. That, to me, is a reasonable season when you consider the need to replace starters at running back and tight end, three on the offensive line, two at defensive end and two in the linebacker corps.

But reasonable to me and you doesn’t equal reasonable to an SEC football fan, especially ones who have tasted the highest of highs. So, no, 9-4 won’t be cause for celebration. But if LSU plays well in all 13 games and shows signs of progress and improvement, I think fans of the Tigers will at least accept the season knowing that 2011 sets up another chance for LSU to make a serious run at a national championship with a veteran team and more favorable schedule.
Big thanks to Randy for some very in-depth answers. There is certainly a lot going on in Baton Rouge, similar to early rumblings at Tennessee and Auburn that eventually resulted in a complete overhaul of the coaching staffs. Those teams weren't bad. They just weren't competing at a level that fans had come to expect, a perfect way to describe LSU right now. It'll be interesting to see how Miles handles the pressure if his job security does in fact come into question.

Up next: Ole Miss and new quarterback Jeremiah Masoli.

1 comment:

Tar Heel Tiger said...

17-9 since winning the nat'l title? Yes, but more importantly, AU is 0-3 against LSwho lately. That needs to end. Now.