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Wednesday, August 4, 2010

2010 opponent preview: Ole Miss

Auburn reported for camp yesterday, which provided just enough information for a few blog posts, a short video and a story for today's newspaper. I suggest you check them all out.

But we're not done with our opponent previews yet. Ole Miss is up today.

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Ole Miss Rebels
  • Head coach: Houston Nutt (3rd season at Ole Miss, 19-8; 18th season overall, 129-78 at Murray State, Boise State, Arkansas and Ole Miss)
  • 2009 record: 9-4 (4-4 SEC, 3rd West), beat Oklahoma State 21-7 in the Cotton Bowl
  • Returning starters: 10 (4 offense, 6 defense)
  • Total offense: 402.4 ypg (5th SEC, 44th nationally)
  • Total defense: 314.7 ypg (4th SEC, 21st nationally)
  • Series: Auburn leads 25-9
  • Last meeting: Auburn won 33-20 at Jordan-Hare Stadium last year
  • Consensus prediction: Fifth in the SEC West
Five-week schedule glimpse
  • Oct. 16: at Alabama
  • Oct. 23: at Arkansas
  • Oct. 30: Auburn
  • Nov. 6: Louisiana-Lafayette
  • No. 13: at Tennessee
For a team that's gone 18-8 during the last two years, Ole Miss isn't commanding much respect this year. Perhaps it's because the entire offense is overhauled, with Jeremiah Masoli serving as a mercenary under center to fill the void at quarterback after Jevan Snead's departure. But Houston Nutt's teams seem to do well when people underestimate them. His defense is still very good and Nutt has a habit of putting together strong offensive crews. In an SEC West where Auburn, Arkansas and LSU are all being mentioned for the No. 2 spot behind Alabama, the Rebels haven't really entered the discussion until Masoli came on board in the last week.

To find out more about Ole Miss, I went to beat writer David Brandt of the Jackson (Miss.) Clarion-Ledger. You can read his excellent blog here and follow him on Twitter here. Here's what David had to say in a short Q&A:

AB: After a hot finish to 2008 and Snead and running back Dexter McCluster returning, Ole Miss was the trendy pick to challenge for the SEC West title last year. Instead, it finished 9-4 overall and 4-4 in the SEC, not a terrible record (especially compared to any year of the disastrous Ed Orgeron era) but disappointing nonetheless. Did the Rebels miss out on their window of opportunity to contend for a division title?
DB: Certainly, I think they missed their window for a year or two. There were a lot of NFL-caliber players on the roster and the schedule was pretty good for a run at the SEC West. Now, especially on offense, the Rebels are rebuilding. They could certainly be entertaining and pull and upset or two, but a division title appears far-fetched.
AB: Snead's questionable decision to turn pro nearly left Ole Miss with a major void at quarterback, until former Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli fell into the Rebels' lap this week. How have Ole Miss fans reacted to taking a chance on someone with a checkered past? And what can we reasonably expect out of Masoli on a new team in a new offense that doesn't return many starters?
DB: Ole Miss fans were pretty split at first, but once they realized how good he's been the past two seasons, more and more jumped on the bandwagon. There's still some fans that aren't happy about it, but most have supported the decision. Masoli won't work miracles for this offense, but he does give them a dynamic play-maker who can run the Wild Rebel and has plenty of collegiate experience. I don't think it's a stretch to say he could be the difference between a win or two.
AB: Ole Miss must replace nearly every starter on its offense and adds a new co-offensive coordinator in Dave Rader, a longtime SEC veteran. Who are the bright spots in the group and what do the Rebels need to have happen to put a capable offense on the field?
DB: Running back Brandon Bolden has had two solid seasons. Now as a junior, they need him to turn into a star. Receiver Jesse Grandy was great on special teams last season, returning two kickoffs for touchdowns. Now he'll be on of the team's main receivers. UM should be solid at offensive tackle, with Bradley Sowell on the left side and Bobby Massie on the right.
AB: Defensive coordinator Tyrone Nix, who Florida took a run at in the offseason, has another talented group to work with, especially on the defensive line, where Kentrell Lockett and Jerrell Powe lead a deep group. Is the relative strength of the front seven enough to ease concerns about a raw secondary? Is the defense good enough to make up for the offense's inexperience?
DB: The front seven should be very, very good and the Rebels return some good talent at safety as well. Cornerback is a question mark, but there appear to be enough candidates that it shouldn't hurt too much. Certainly, the defense is going to have to lead this team. If the Rebels want to make a bowl, they'll have to pull off a couple 14-10 wins.
AB: Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen didn't shy away from taking some shots at Ole Miss last year, a matter made worse by the Bulldogs' 41-27 win in the Egg Bowl. Is there a fear that the Bulldogs are closing the gap in the state rivalry or are fans confident that Nutt, after 18 wins in two years, will be able to keep Ole Miss at a higher level in the foreseeable future?
DB: There's no doubt Mississippi State is getting better and the Egg Bowl win showed that. But Ole Miss has had its best two-year run in the past 30 years, so Rebel fans are still pretty excited. I think in general, you're going to see both Ole Miss and Mississippi State be more competitive in the SEC - especially when compared to the dark days of Orgeron and Sly Croom.
Thanks to David for helping us out. This one doesn't jump out on the schedule, but it is in Oxford, and Auburn plays the Rebels after big home games against Arkansas and LSU, with a natural break against FCS UT-Chattanooga the week after the Ole Miss game. This could be a classic trap game, especially if by the end of October, Masoli has a solid grasp of the offense. He's a game-changer if Nutt can get him up to speed with how his offense works. Auburn shouldn't sleep on this game.

Up next: The aforementioned UT-Chattanooga, Auburn's final non-conference game before Amen Corner.

7 comments:

Eddie McCoy said...

Will Ole Miss change it's offense for Masoli? That would be the question to me. They like the power game and I just struggle seeing it here, but Nutt did have Matt Jones in his offense.

Andy Bitter said...

I'd imagine Nutt will cater the offense to what Masoli does best. Does that mean they're going to run the Oregon offense? No. But Nutt's not stupid. Masoli is by far his best offensive player. He'll adjust accordingly, I'd guess.

The Edge said...

Dr. Bitter-

One game: Would you rather have Masoli or Newton?

No. You don't get to watch how Newton does to start the season.

I basically want to know if you think Auburn should have made a push for Masoli or someone else, like Mitch Mustain.

Andy Bitter said...

One game? I'd probably take Masoli right now. He's proven he can succeed at the college level. That's not to say that Newton won't. From all indications, he could have a great year. But Masoli was being touted as a Heisman candidate coming into this year. That's a level few quarterbacks achieve.

Should Auburn have pursued him or Mustain? I don't think so. There's a big advantage of having been in the system during spring. Had they been able to pursue either last winter when they were courting Newton, sure. But once they went with Newton, I think it was wise to not bother with the other two.

The Edge said...

Is Newton officially "the starter" yet or is he still the No. 1 QB?

Andy Bitter said...

He's still QB1, but considering the competition, I can't imagine that changing in the next few weeks.

Tar Heel Tiger said...

Let's just hope OM comes home from turd town and arky all bruised and wore out...but with 2 wins.