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Friday, November 13, 2009

Auburn-Georgia breakdown

OK, in conjunction with the Macon Telegraph's Georgia beat writer David Hale, we've expanded this week's breakdown to look at more specific groups for tomorrow's game. I wrote the Auburn sections; Davis wrote the Georgia sections.

Auburn (7-3, 3-3 SEC) at Georgia (5-4, 3-3 SEC)
  • Where: Athens, Ga.
  • When: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2
  • Last meeting: Georgia 17, Auburn 13, Nov. 15, 2008, in Auburn
PASSING GAME
Auburn: Chris Todd appears to be on track again after a midseason slide during the Tigers' three-game losing streak. The senior has five touchdown passes and 468 passing yards in the last two games, both Auburn victories. His 17 touchdown passes are tied for third in the league. Darvin Adams' emergence as a reliable receiving option has helped. The sophomore leads the SEC with nine touchdown receptions, getting three against Furman last week. He and Todd have developed a great rapport, knowing what the other is going to do before he does it.

Georgia: Joe Cox has had his moments this season, but until last week’s blowout win over FCS opponent Tennessee Tech, he had thrown at least one interception in each game. But while his struggles have been well documented, he does have one of the best weapons in the SEC at his disposal in wide receiver A.J. Green, the conference’s leading receiver. Green may get some help this week, too, as Georgia’s tight ends are coming off a week in which they totaled seven catches — their high-water mark in one game in four years.

Edge: Push
RUNNING GAME
Auburn: Nobody has shut down Ben Tate in the conference play. The running back has five of his six 100-yard games against SEC opponents, His 1,142 rushing yards are second in the conference to Alabama's Mark Ingram. The question is who will back him up? Onterio McCalebb continues to recover from an ankle injury that's sapped his speed. That could mean an increased role for Mario Fannin, an H-back who has taken on more tailback duties in McCalebb's absence. Fannin has 18 of his 31 carries in the last three games for 151 yards, an 8.4-yard average.

Georgia: What was once a disaster has slowly become closer to a minor inconvenience for the Bulldogs. After struggling to move the ball on the ground with any consistency for the first six weeks of the season, a shakeup on the offensive line and a stronger dedication to the running game behind Caleb King and Washaun Ealey, has Georgia headed in the right direction. But despite 304 yards on the ground last week, the Bulldogs still rank 83rd nationally in rushing offense.

Edge: Auburn
FRONT SEVEN
Auburn: The bookend pass rushing duo of Antonio Coleman and Antoine Carter have helped solidify this group. Carter has returned from a knee injury to give opposing offensive lines another thing to worry about. Coleman is living up to his All-SEC status, with a league-best 12½ tackles for a loss and 6½ sacks. Despite Eltoro Freeman shoring up the weak-side linebacker spot, the Tigers still only have three linebackers in the rotation, meaning fatigue will be a major concern.

Georgia: Fresh off a game in which they held Tennessee Tech to negative yardage on the ground, the Bulldogs are feeling good about their run defense. Georgia is fourth in the SEC against the run, and has not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season. The pass rush has improved as the season has progressed, too. The Bulldogs tallied six sacks a week ago and Justin Houston, the team’s best pass rusher, returns from an elbow injury this week.

Edge: Georgia
SECONDARY
Auburn: The bodies are few, but talent remains. Cornerback Walt McFadden is tied for the SEC lead in interceptions with four. Although converted cornerback Demond Washington has only played on half at safety, he appears to fit into the role, with the ability to cover receivers while not shying away from contact. Overall, the Tigers are giving up 191.1 yards per game in the air, ninth-best in the SEC. But that number ranks 32nd nationally.

Georgia: It has been a long year for Georgia’s defensive backs. The Bulldogs have allowed three quarterbacks to throw for more than 300 yards against them so far this season and rank 11th in the SEC in pass defense. Making matters worse, the bad plays have hardly been offset by good ones. Georgia has just five interceptions as a team this season, two of which came from reserve safety Baccari Rambo.

Edge: Auburn
SPECIAL TEAMS
Auburn: The Tigers' Achilles' heel. Auburn punt returners have had six muffs/fumbles this year, leading to three turnovers. But it's ugly across the board, with the Tigers ranking 114th nationally on punt returns, 101st on kickoff return defense and a 63rd on kick returns. Only place-kicker Wes Byrum, who is 13-for-14 this year, has been a bright spot. Among kickers who have attempted at least 10 field goals, his 92.9 field goal percentage is fifth best in the country.

Georgia: There have been a few inconsistencies on special teams for Georgia, including two fumbled returns, but for the most part, the Bulldogs have been kept alive by big plays by their special teamers. Drew Butler leads the nation in punting, Blair Walsh is 13-of-14 on field goals, and Brandon Boykin already has two kick returns of 100 yards for touchdowns. He set a team record for kick return yards against Florida.

Edge: Georgia
COACHING
Auburn: Gene Chizik has had a roller-coaster first year at Auburn. A five-game winning streak to start the year raised expectations before a three-game losing skid brought Tigers fans back to earth. Wins in each of the last two games have calmed everyone's nerves, but Chizik has remained stoic throughout it all, not getting too excited with the wins or too devastated by the losses. With seven victories, he has already met or exceeded most peoples' expectations in his first year, at least temporarily erasing doubts about his qualifications for the job after a two-year 5-19 record at Iowa State. But he's never been a head coach for Amen Corner, the stretch of the season by which all Auburn coaches are judged.

Georgia: In his ninth year at Georgia, Mark Richt is the dean of SEC coaches, but he has never been through a season quite like this. The Bulldogs are just 5-4 with losses in their past three rivalry games and still need one more win to become bowl eligible. Fans have decried Richt’s unwillingness to make dramatic changes, and his coaching staff has come under increased scrutiny with each loss. Auburn represents another chance to calm the critics, however, and Richt has enjoyed three straight wins in the rivalry. He has pointed to the 2006 season when his team was also 5-4 but pulled a stunning upset of the Tigers in Auburn, the first of three straight wins over ranked opponents.

Edge: Georgia
KEY MATCHUPS
Ben Tate vs. Georgia's linebackers. The Tigers' offensive line has done a tremendous job of occupying opposing defensive fronts, freeing up Tate to make moves on linebackers after he's already gotten to the line of scrimmage. Three of the Bulldogs' top five tacklers are linebackers, led by weak-side starter Rennie Curran, who has 82 stops. They'll have a tough task stopping Tate, however. The 5-foot-11, 218-pound back is a load to take down, but he's also deceptively fast. He's had touchdown runs of 60 and 53 yards against SEC foes this season, getting the corner and out-running the defense on both occasions.

A.J. Green vs. Auburn’s secondary. Green missed Georgia’s last game against Tennessee Tech with a bruised lung, but said he’s healthy this week and aiming to make up for lost time. Auburn ranks ninth in pass defense in the SEC, but Green admits a great deal of respect for McFadden. While McFadden will be tasked with the primary job of slowing the SEC’s top receiver, the standard plan against Green has been to roll a safety over in coverage. That job will fall to the 5-foot-9 Washington, a converted corner who may have some trouble going up against Green for the occasional jump ball.
PREDICTIONS
Hale: Auburn 33, Georgia 30.

Bitter: Auburn 31, Georgia 28.

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