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Saturday, August 7, 2010

2010 opponent preview: Alabama

Auburn has pushed its practice back until late tonight and there's no open viewing period for the media, so practice reports will be coming very late tonight.

That gives us the perfect time to wrap up our opponent previews, which are linked to in a box on he right if you've missed any. Today, last but not least, is defending champion Alabama.

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Alabama Crimson Tide
  • Head coach: Nick Saban (fourth season at Alabama,33-8 (28-8 with vacated wins removed from 2007); 15th season overall, 124-50-1 at Toledo, Michigan State, LSU and Alabama)
  • 2009 record: 14-0 (8-0 SEC, 1st West), beat Texas 37-21 in BCS national championship game
  • Returning starters: 10 (8 offense, 2 defense)
  • Total offense: 403.0 ypg (4th SEC, 42nd nationally)
  • Total defense: 244.1 ypg (1st SEC, 2nd nationally)
  • Series: Alabama leads 40-33-1
  • Last meeting: Alabama won 26-21 at Jordan-Hare last year
  • Consensus prediction: First in the SEC West
Five-week schedule glimpse
  • Oct. 30: Off
  • Nov. 6: at LSU
  • Nov. 13: Mississippi State
  • Nov. 20: Georgia State
  • Nov. 26: Auburn
Nobody played Alabama tougher than Auburn last year. Sure, Tennessee finished closer, but it didn't lead for the majority of the game against the eventual national champs. The Tigers shut down Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and moved the ball against the Crimson Tide's defense better than anyone had all year. But Alabama still found a way to win, pulling it out with a mettle-testing length-of-the field drive that defined the season. But Auburn proved the gap between the state rivals isn't as wide as previously thought. Gene Chizik's crew hung with the Tide in every sense, a far cry from the 36-0 rout in Tuscaloosa in 2008 that ended Tommy Tuberville's run as coach. This year, the stakes could be higher. Some folks think this could be a battle of unbeaten teams (a situation that would take a lot of luck). Even if it isn't, it will be as highly-anticipated matchup in the series in recent memory.

To find out more about how Alabama will be after its national championship season, I sent some questions to Michael Casagrande of the Decatur Daily. You can read his Bama Blog here or follow him on Twitter here. Here are the answers he gave:

AB: Alabama loses nine starters from a defense that ranked No. 2 nationally and carried the team through most of its national championship season. Can the Tide reload quick enough to keep its winning streak going? Who will emerge as defensive stars in the absence of Rolando McClain, Terrence Cody and Javier Arenas?
MC: If we are talking potential, reloading doesn’t sound so hard. Players like Cody and Arenas didn’t have close to the high school careers as most of the players who will be taking their spots this fall. That said, potential doesn’t always turn into success stories in the college game. Up front, the names to remember will be Josh Chapman (NG), Kerry Murphy (NG), Luther Davis (DE) and Marcell Dareus (DE). Chapman and Murphy played together at Hoover High School and Murphy was one of the top players in the nation before running into academic issues. The linebackers of note include Chris Jordan, Courtney Upshaw and Jerrell Harris. Like the linemen, these guys have seen game experience, just not on the starting lineup.

The secondary is a whole different story. Only Mark Barron returns to the starting lineup, so three or four top jobs are up in the air. Dre Kirkpatrick is penciled in as a cornerback while the army of other competitors for starting assignments include Phelon Jones, B.J. Scott, DeMarcus Milliner and John Fulton. Bottom line, the new guys had way more stars next to their names on the recruiting sites than those they are replacing. We’ll see how accurate those ratings are this fall.
AB: Mark Ingram is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner but many people think sophomore Trent Richardson is the better back. How will the Tide split up carries this season? Is it possible that college football's best player last season isn't the best running back on his own team?
MC: It’s funny how perceptions can turn a returning Heisman Trophy winner into the No. 2 option in the backfield. I’ve heard this several times and I always offer the same response: If Richardson was better, he would have been the one in position to win the Heisman. With Saban, it doesn’t matter who is older. Talent wins every time in the race for playing time. Ingram brings a different skill set to the table. He’s bigger and more powerful and his 2009 season can’t be overlooked. How many returning Heisman winners have had their playing time questioned? Just think about it, people.

That said, Richardson did a lot to help Ingram reach those heights. His ability gave Ingram a chance to catch his breath while not taking anything away from the offense. Richardson is very impressive. He almost never goes down on the first hit and his speed is a little better than Ingram’s. The sophomore isn’t too far away from Ingram, but the Heisman winner still seems to have an edge on his apprentice. The two will still split carries, no doubt. With the perception that the passing game is improving, it will be interesting to see how the rushing attack will be altered.
AB: Julio Jones' receiving numbers took a big step backward last year. With Greg McElroy under center for a second straight year, will the two form a better quarterback/receiver bond? Is Jones going to be a bigger part of the offensive game plan?
MC: True, Jones’ numbers were down, but I’m not sure it has anything to do with his relationship with McElroy. His early-season leg injury slowed him considerably just as opposing defenses threw an extra defensive back his way. His numbers also suffered from the emergence of a few new targets. Marquis Maze stepped up as a solid second option as did tight end Colin Peek and at times Darius Hanks. Spreading the ball around gave the Tide more balance, but took away from the big numbers Julio put up as a freshman. I cringe even mentioning this since it will be published on an Auburn blog, but Julio showed what he can do when back at full strength in the fourth quarter of the Iron Bowl last November.
AB: Arenas was a difference-maker as a punt returner, place-kicker Leigh Tiffin was an All-American and punter P.J. Fitzgerald a serviceable senior. On a team with few question marks, will finding a new returner, kicker and punter be near the top of the list? Who are the candidates?
MC: This is the topic I always revert to when convincing myself this Alabama team is not going to have that same spark as last season. It was the intangibles that won several games last season, and the special teams played a huge part in that. Just ask Tennessee (all 12 Tide points on field goals, two Cody blocks) or Ole Miss (five Tiffin field goals). Fitzgerald never gave Tide fans a reason to fret about a case of the shanks and blown field position. And Arenas, well, I think his return abilities said enough by itself.

Now, to this year, filling Arenas’ shoes will be the easiest. Big time athletes like Jones, Richardson, Kirkpatrick, and on and on will provide at least close to the same threat as the current Kansas City Chief. Punting and kicking, now that’s another story. As seen on A-Day, it was horrid at times. It will be up to a few true freshmen and sophomore Jeremy Shelley. None had even close to Tiffin’s leg strength or accuracy. Punter Zach Goether had three punts travel less than 30 yards on A-Day including a 12-yarder, so incoming freshman Jay Williams will have plenty of pressure on his smallish shoulder pads when practice starts.
AB: Alabama will undoubtedly get everybody's best shot this year. What games on the schedule look to be the biggest challenges? Can the Tide sidestep the numerous land mines in the SEC and become the first team in the history of the BCS to repeat as national champs?
MC: Sidestepping the landmines is the best way to put it. Going into the 2009 season, (respectfully) Tennessee and Auburn did not appear to be the most dangerous opponents on the schedule. But those two gave the Tide their biggest scares. The first obvious date to circle would be Sept. 11 when Penn State comes to town to renew the old series. It gets serious Sept. 25 with a three-game stretch starting at Arkansas followed by the home date with Florida and ending at South Carolina. Realistically, every game (besides Georgia State, Duke and San Jose) could be the one that ends Alabama’s two-year regular season winning streak. As it was last year, that little post-Thanksgiving meeting with Auburn could have some heavy ramifications for a national title run, but surviving to that point could be more difficult than anything else.
And that's a wrap on the opponent previews. If anybody's got an NCAA '11 simulation they'd like to share, feel free to post it in the comments section below. We'll see how close the PlayStation can get this year after correctly predicting the Tigers' 8-5 record last year.

4 comments:

rand said...

NCAA '11 Sim
Overall record - 8-4
Conference record - 4-4
Auburn – 48 Arkansas State – 0
Auburn – 23 Mississippi State – 24
Auburn – 24 Clemson – 17
Auburn – 15 South Carolina – 10
Auburn – 38 UL Monroe – 0
Auburn – 42 Kentucky – 14
Auburn – 14 Arkansas – 31
Auburn – 24 LSU – 21
Auburn – 37 Ole Miss – 24
Auburn – 48 FCS West – 0
Auburn – 11 Georgia – 21
Auburn – 17 Alabama – 33
Outback Bowl
Auburn – 37 Minnesota – 10
Unranked at season’s end
Newton – 2,431 yds, 19 tds, 12 ints
McCaleb – 1,183 yds, 14 tds
Lutzenkirchen – 795 yds, 4 tds
Byrum – 19 of 31 FGs

Anonymous said...

Didn't read the story. Did you cover cheating at all? If not, story is incomplete.

Tar Heel Tiger said...

Sorry, AB , but that's one story that's just gross...and I didn't even get past the headline.

rand - I don't know the final record, but I do know NCAA '11 Sim got the Iron Bowl wrong. AU wins.

Anonymous said...

Just curious but Andy did you find it odd that the guys respone to Richardson being better than Ingram was, if he was better weeman would have started him. Yet when you asked him about losing all of those starters on defense, his reply was the guys behind them were more highly rated players. Talk about talking out of both sides of your mouth.