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Monday, August 23, 2010

What do the pollsters think of Auburn?

Cam Newton's comments the other night got us to thinking: just how is Auburn perceived by the national media heading into the season? The Tigers are No. 22 in the Associated Press poll and No. 23 in the USA Today Coaches' poll, but what about the specifics?

Thankfully, the AP makes its ballots public. They're all on Pollspeak.com, an interesting site if you have some time to kill. Since Auburn is off today and there isn't much football news, let's look at the Tigers' breakdown:
  • Auburn was on 41 of 60 ballots.
  • The voter who has Auburn the highest is Joe Giglio of the Raleigh News & Observer. He has the Tigers 7th. If you take a look at his ballot, he has many extremes (like Boise State No. 1, which I support).
  • He's the only one who has the Tigers in the top 10. Bill Cole, Coley Harvey, Desmond Conner, Bob Condotta, Jack Bogaczyk and Kirk Herbstreit have Auburn in the top 15.
  • Interestingly, Herbstreit picked Auburn to win the West on SportsCenter last night. He still has Alabama ranked No. 1, however, so his ballot is more of an indication of accomplishment than predicted future success.
  • A couple other SEC writers of note have Auburn pretty high:
  • Kyle Veazey (Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion-Ledger in Jackson) has the Tigers 16th.
  • Chip Cosby (Kentucky beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader) has them 17th.
  • Randy Rosetta (LSU beat writer for the Advocate of Baton Route) has them 17th.
  • Wes Rucker (Tennessee beat writer for the Chattanooga Times Free Press) has them 18th.
  • Alabama has two voters. Cecil Hurt of the Tuscaloosa News has Auburn ranked 20th. Jon Solomon of the Birmingham News has the Tigers unranked.
What does all this mean? Well ... nothing. The polls usually are completely different looking after three or four weeks. Furthermore, none of it is factored into the BCS rankings, so a berth in a major bowl game doesn't ride on them anymore.

As for the national publications, there's nothing too out of the ordinary there. The Sporting News, Phil Steele, ESPN's Blue Ribbon and Game Plan pick Auburn to finish second in the SEC West. Everybody else has Auburn third or fourth, except for one outlier, the Football Outsiders, who pick the Tigers to finish fifth.

What is the blog's conclusion? That the season can't get here quick enough so we don't have to write anything more about this stuff.

22 comments:

J.M. said...

"What is the blog's conclusion? That the season can't get here quick enough so we don't have to write anything more about this stuff."

Amen to that!!!

Anonymous said...

Also, Robert Smith of ESPN had Auburn at #3 in his top 5.

-RB

Wombat said...

"What is the blog's conclusion? That the season can't get here quick enough"

AMEN!

Jared Owen said...

"(like Boise State No. 1, which I support)."

I really respected all of the writing you did at this site until I read the above comment.

Andy Bitter said...

21 starters back from a team that went undefeated last year? That's pretty good.

Jared Owen said...

Don't get me wrong, Andy. I love the site; I stop by 3-4 times a day.
But in the last 8 years, Boise State has played 13 games against BCS conference schools. In those games, their record is 6-7. Now, imagine if instead of playing BCS schools only once or twice a year they played a SEC schedule of 8-9 BCS schools per season. I don't think they would have been part of the conversation for the last couple of years if such was the case.

Sorry to hijack, Andy. Like I said, I absolutely love your content. Keep it coming.

MikeP said...

My opinion, if Boise State played a schedule with 8 BCS schools on it, any eight, they would finish the season somewhere around 7-5. Their history against the major programs is terrible. An odd win here and there doesn't make up for that.

Alabama's two voters are Cecil Hurt and Jon Soloman? It's a good thing for Auburn that their poll has no bearing on things.

Andy Bitter said...

2006, 2008 and 2009, the years Boise State was legitimately good, it went 4-0 against BCS conference teams, with wins against Utah and TCU as well.

I don't think they're top-five caliber every year, but this year I think that's the case.

Of course, we'll find out what they're made of in the opener against Virginia Tech.

(Also, I'm curious how many of those losses Boise State had were on the road? I love the big, bad BCS talk from teams who refuse to schedule a home-and-home with one game on the Smurf Turf).

AUsome04 said...

I agree Andy with all of your points. We're all ready to see these guys do some hitting.

Boise St is a good team no matter what these guys are saying. The coach out there is running an excellent program & they've been getting better players lately. They hammered Oregon (you know, the Pac-10 champions). And Oregon didn't have one week to prepare, they had the whole offseason. If they cab beat Va Tech in DC, I think they'll get a few more #1 votes.

Tar Heel Tiger said...

Schools won't go to Boise because of $, or more accurately, the lack of $. If the Idahoans suddenly offered $3million to each visiting team, BCS schools would be clubbing each other trying to get to the front of the line.

AU will go to WVU, Clemson, etc. but not Boise or S. Miss. It isn't because the latter or not from a BC$ conference, it's because they won't/can't pay the price. That's my assumption, anyway.

Which raises the question... what on earth did Duke do to get ua-t to play in Durham? I bet they'll be paying ua-t from their basketball income. They certainly don't make enough from their football team. On Sept 18, this Tar Heel will love Duke.

Tar Heel Tiger said...

^ "or not"??? Let's try "are not"

Unknown said...

(Also, I'm curious how many of those losses Boise State had were on the road? I love the big, bad BCS talk from teams who refuse to schedule a home-and-home with one game on the Smurf Turf).

Schools from BCS-AQ conferences schedule home-and-homes with schools from other BCS-AQ conferences. Period.

I am tired of hearing this weak argument from Boise State apologists. If BSU wants a home-and-home from a team in a legitimate conference then BSU should find a way to place themselves in legitimate conference.

Fact is BSU is an overrated team in a weak and irrelevant conference. WIN in an Automatic Qualifying conference and then complain about a lack of respect. (i.e. go undefeated in the SEC and get no NC game)

As an AU fan, seeing BSU as a pre-season #3 makes me sick at my stomach. If Auburn played BSU's schedules from the past few years then CTT would still be here.

Anonymous said...

Ab ...I love your writing and love your conclusion.

Disagree on BS. The cumulative effect of playing many good teams is substantial. BS may get jacked up and beat VT. Could they do it again the next week? I doubt it, and top 5 teams should be able to.

Andy Bitter said...

This is precisely why there should be a playoff in college football. We wouldn't have to debate whether a team like Boise State belongs in the championship discussion. It could play its way to that spot in an 8-team or 16-team tournament, though.

Did anyone question Butler's legitimacy last April? No. The Bulldogs proved they could hang with the big boys by winning.

AUsome04 said...

No doubt AB. I love the Butler analogy. Until this so-called mythical national championship is changed to a playoff who knows? I'm not saying BS, would be able to compete every weekend in the SEC. I'm just saying if they beat Va Tech in DC, they'll get some #1 consideration.

AUsome04 said...

Let's face it guys no one knows how these seasons will play out. Our current system of voters and computers that determine the MNC:

In '09 FLA was consensus #1 starting the season but bama won the MNC; In '08 it was UGA but FL won; In '07 they got it right with LSU (but overlooked two losses and a one game winning streak to vote them in MNC); In '06 Ohio St & Mich were the best teams ever created (there was talk that voters would make them 1 & 2 in a rematch for MNC) thank goodness they didn't b/c they both got their azzes kicked in the bowl games; In '04...nevermind; In '03 they voted in a Oklahoma team that had just gotten thrashed by KState in the Big 12 championship game (yeah an almost MNC that's not even a conference champion)...well you see the picture. On any given Sautrday...

Jared Owen said...

What bothers me most about this high preseason ranking for Boise is that if they are able to beat Va. Tech (which is very possible since we still don't know how good they are this year) then there is practically noway they are going to loose this year and such will probably make this year the year that Boise will get to the NC game. If you start out ranked 5th and 3rd in the polls and win out then you are virtually garunteed a NC birth (even for WAC teams). But what is so awful is that it pretty much locks other, lower ranked teams out. What if both OSU and Boise go undefeated? They are both assured the two births to the NC regardless of the fact that some other team may have also been undefeated. Its almost like the 2004 season but like Oklahoma only had to play against WAC teams to get in to the NC game. It doesn't matter that AU played a much stronger schedule, USC and OK got the nod because of preseason rankings.

Anonymous said...

The funny part about Week 1 in college football is that is could shape 1/2 the national title game that early. If Boise State beat VT in week 1, you watch what I'm telling you, they will play for the BCS title. It's a done deal. They can't lose to anyone else on their schedule. I'm not saying it's right, but you mark it down now, if they win their in the National Championship come January.

MikeP said...

The above is the sad part about Boise's ranking. Beat VT and they are in the title game.
If they had, say, Clemson, Kentucky, Ole Miss and Texas Tech on their schedule they'd never make it in.

Anonymous said...

Boise St. will probably beat VT. I think that will be a bigger reflection of VT not being very good than Boise St. showing they deserve a pre-season #3 ranking. I think Oregon St. will beat Boise a few weeks later and all of this Boise St. titel game alk will be for nothing.

Anonymous said...

AB ...everyone wants some form of a playoff, but that ain't happening soon.

Getting hot in a basketball game doesn't compare to playing an SEC football schedule. BS would lose 2-5 games in an SEC schedule. I agree that we won't know whether it is 2 or 5 losses until they actually play that schedule.

Anonymous said...
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