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Friday, November 28, 2008

Iron Bowl matchups: a full breakdown

Back by popular (OK, my editor's) demand is the position-by-position breakdown for tomorrow's Iron Bowl.

I handled the Auburn side. Jason Galloway, who covers the Crimson Tide for the Ledger-Enquirer in Tuscaloosa, took care of Alabama.

Not surprisingly, most of the advantages came up Alabama's way, although I wouldn't have expected anything else since the No. 1 team in the country is involved.

We had some disagreement for who has the edge in the secondary and at special teams. I gave the secondary a push; Jason went with Auburn. I gave special teams to Auburn, despite the tenuous place-kicking situation; Jason went with Alabama. I can honestly see arguments that work for both sides.

Barners and Bammers feel free to weigh in:

Quarterback
  • Auburn: With six career starts now under his belt, sophomore Kodi Burns is slowly but surely putting things together. He nearly led the Tigers to a come-from-behind victory against Georgia, driving the team down the field in the final minute before things fizzled. He hasn’t thrown an interception in either of the last two games, going 28-for-50 for 309 yards. He’s also rushed for 186 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Alabama: As one of the few senior quarterbacks in the SEC, John Parker Wilson has been the leader in the Tide’s run to a perfect record. Now that he finally has a solid running game behind him, Wilson has not had to throw the ball as much as in previous years, allowing him to up his completion percentage while cutting down his interceptions.
  • Edge: Alabama
Running backs
  • Auburn: Sophomore Mario Fannin was impressive in his first career start against Georgia, with a 52-yard touchdown reception and a 35-yard touchdown run. He split carries with junior Ben Tate and will likely do so this week as well. Senior Brad Lester, who was dinged up and didn’t get in on offense against the Bulldogs, could get some carries as well.
  • Alabama: Multiple backs make up Alabama’s top-25 rushing attack. Starter Glen Coffee is second in the SEC with 1,091 yards on the ground this season, and true freshman Mark Ingram has nine rushing touchdowns, second among running backs in the SEC. Third-stringer Roy Upchurch is also a threat, averaging 6.0 yards per carry average.
  • Advantage: Alabama
Wide receivers/tight ends
  • Auburn: With Tommy Trott out for the season with a knee injury, Gabe McKenzie, who switched back to tight end two weeks ago after a three-month stint on the defensive line, will start in his place. Wide receiver Montez Billings played against Georgia despite having a broken nose, catching a season-best six passes for 66 yards.
  • Alabama: Highly-touted freshman wide out Julio Jones has emerged as the Tide’s go-to man in the passing game with 43 receptions this season. Although nobody has stepped up as a sure number two receiver, tight end Nick Walker has played a huge role in Alabama’s passing game, giving Wilson a big target to dump the ball off to.
  • Advantage: Alabama
Offensive line
  • Auburn: The shuffling has stopped and Auburn has shown some improvement running the ball. Against Georgia, the Tigers finished with 124 rushing yards, the second most they’ve had in an SEC game this season. Since Auburn installed more traditional offensive sets – using more tight ends and a fullback – it has allowed only three sacks in the last four games.
  • Alabama: This might be the Tide's best group of linemen since Shaun Alexander was running behind Chris Samuels. With a potential top-5 NFL draft pick at left tackle in Andre Smith, experienced seniors at the center and right guard positions and an emerging star in junior Mike Johnson at left guard, the line has been the main reason for Alabama's success in the running game this season.
  • Advantage: Alabama
Defensive line
  • Auburn: Auburn got all of its injured players back last week against Georgia but couldn’t provide much of a pass rush. The Tigers didn’t register a sack and had few hurries. They did manage to bottle up Knowshon Moreno after he ran wild in the first quarter, holding him to 42 yards during the final three. Defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, however, didn’t have one tackle against the Bulldogs.
  • Alabama: Junior college transfer Terrence Cody anchors Alabama’s three-man front from the nose guard position. The 365-pound junior draws double and triple teams nearly every play, allowing linebackers and other defensive linemen like Brandon Deaderick and Bobby Greenwood, who each have 3.5 sacks this year, to break through and make plays.
  • Advantage: Alabama
Linebackers
  • Auburn: The Tigers got a boost last week from outside linebacker Merrill Johnson, who made six tackles after it was feared his season would be lost to a broken hand he suffered against Tennessee-Martin. The senior has 6½ tackles for a loss this season, most of the linebackers. Middle linebacker Josh Bynes has three interceptions, tops on the team.
  • Alabama: Sophomore middle linebacker Rolando McClain has made 77 tackles to lead the Tide's rush defense, which ranks third nationally. The underrated Brandon Fanney has recorded 52 stops on the outside, and true freshman Dont’a Hightower has 55 tackles alongside McClain in the middle. Alabama’s front seven has proven to be one of the nation’s best this season.
  • Advantage: Alabama
Secondary
  • Auburn: Getting Jerraud Powers and Neiko Thorpe back at full speed gave Auburn’s defensive backs a boost against Georgia. The Tigers limited Matthew Stafford to 215 passing yards, but they still gave up two passing touchdowns, bringing their season total up to 17. Only Arkansas (20) has allowed more in the SEC.
    Alabama: Former walk-on running back Rashad Johnson has emerged as one of the top safeties in the country. Along with being second on the team with 68 tackles, the senior has five interceptions, returning two of them for touchdowns. His three picks were key in the Tide’s overtime victory at LSU. Kareem Jackson and Javier Arenas also make up a solid cornerback tandem.
  • Advantage: Push
Special teams
  • Auburn: The place-kicking situation is dire, with Wes Byrum battling a right knee injury and sophomore walk-on Morgan Hull expected to take his place. Hull’s first career kick came against Georgia, when he made an extra point. He has never attempted a field goal. The Tigers are solid on their other units, however, ranking fourth nationally in kick returns (26.1 yards) and 16th in net punting (37.6 yards).
  • Alabama: Aside from a small slump at the beginning of this month, kicker Leigh Tiffin has been fairly reliable on the year. The Tide’s greatest special teams asset, junior return man Javier Arenas, is always a threat to take it to the house. His five career punt return touchdowns are an Alabama record.
  • Advantage: Auburn
Coaching
  • Auburn: Tommy Tuberville is 7-2 all-time in Iron Bowls, owning the best winning percentage (.778) of any coach who has been involved in at least three of them. He’s also had a great string of success against highly-ranked teams, winning nine of his last 13 games against teams ranked in the Associated Press top 10. He even has one win against a No. 1 team, toppling top-ranked Florida 23-20 in 2001 on a late field goal.
  • Alabama: Nick Saban has lived up to the Alabama fans’ expectations in only his second year with the Tide. Trying to live up to the rich tradition that surrounds the city of Tuscaloosa, Saban has catapulted Alabama to the top of the college football rankings, only two wins away from a national championship birth.
  • Advantage: Alabama
Wild card
  • Auburn: Both teams have downplayed the significance of Auburn’s six-game winning streak in the series, but there has to be some psychological edge gained from having beaten your archrival every time since 2002. The Tigers have never lost in Tuscaloosa, owning a 6-0 record in the series since the teams stopped playing the game in Birmingham. If Auburn can get off to a quick start, putting any inkling out there that the streak might reach seven games, there’s no telling how an anxious Bryant-Denny Stadium crowd might react.
  • Alabama: Alabama has not beaten the Tigers since 2001, a six-game losing streak. After snapping streaks to LSU (five games) and Mississippi State (two games), the Tide is likely not looking ahead to next week’s SEC Championship Game. Alabama has some unfinished business to take care of before heading to Atlanta.
  • Advantage: Alabama
Three keys for Auburn
  1. Make John Parker Wilson beat you. Nobody has successfully put the game on Wilson’s shoulders this season. And while the senior is enjoying a fine season (he only has five interceptions), he has never been asked to win a game by himself. He hasn’t thrown for more than 219 yards in any game this season and has only thrown four touchdown passes since SEC play began, with none in the last four games.
  2. Get something – anything – on the ground. Alabama prides itself on stopping the run, giving up 75.1 yards per game, the third-best mark nationally. But the Tigers can’t abandon it altogether. The Crimson Tide defense is too good for a one-dimensional offense. Be it Kodi Burns on draws, Mario Fannin to the edge or Ben Tate up the middle, Auburn needs to establish something to be able to go to the air with any kind of success.
  3. Don’t get knocked out early. Alabama’s M.O. has been to jump to a quick lead, run the ball to work the clock and force the opponent to play catch-up. The Crimson Tide has outscored its opponents 120-20 in the first quarter alone. An early deficit is not Auburn’s friend. The Tigers need to hang around, silence what should be a rabid crowd and make Alabama feel the full weight of that No. 1 crown.
Three keys for Alabama
  1. Protect the football. Auburn’s strength is its defense. If Alabama is cautious and does not turn the ball over, it will force the Tigers sub-par offense to drive the length of the field to score points. Wilson must continue to make good decisions and not let a key interception swing the momentum in this rivalry game.
  2. Strike early. The only game in which Alabama has trailed a significant amount of time this year is the overtime victory at LSU. If the Tide lets Auburn jump out to an early lead, Alabama might have to rely less on the power running game that has produced its 11-0 record. The Tigers’ impressive pass defense is something the Tide will want to stay away from as much as possible.
  3. Dominate the line of scrimmage. Auburn has not proven it can be a threat in the passing game this season. If the Tide’s front seven can control the line of scrimmage, runners Brad Lester, Ben Tate and Mario Fannin will have no room to operate, and the Tigers’ offense will be unable to move. Offensively, Alabama’s line has dominated opponents all year, opening up plenty of running lanes for Coffee and Ingram.
Bitter's take: There is nothing flashy about Alabama, a straightforward team led by a no-nonsense coach, so it would be hard to imagine a Crimson Tide group with so much at stake to come out flat. But Auburn has played better lately. The Tigers took a fight to Georgia two weeks ago, barely falling short in the final minute. There are seldom blowouts in this series (17 of the last 20 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less) and probably won’t be one this week, despite the teams’ vastly different records. Auburn will play for pride, but Alabama is too solid of a team with too much on the line to slip up in this one. Prediction: Alabama 20-10.

Jason's take: Although this seems like a lopsided matchup, the Iron Bowl always finds a way to present a great game. Aside from sheer pride, both teams have much to play for -- Alabama, of course, for its national title hopes and Auburn to become bowl eligible for the ninth straight year. In the end, however, the Tide will prove to be too much for Auburn to handle on the road and the Tigers’ one-dimensional offense will not be able to keep up. Prediction: Alabama 20-10.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

.....No knock against you, because nearly every sportswriter in the area does it, but shouldn't these big Iron Bowl comparisons be done featuring the players who are going to be actually knocking heads?

......Terrence Cody's not going to be fighting SenDerrick Marks, for instance. Cody will be working against Jason Bosely and Tyrone Green, most likely.

.....Even so, the matchups don't look promising. Auburn's front seven must play the game of their lives. Shut down the run, and make JP Wilson beat 'em.

.....Offensively, Auburn must spread Bama's big players out, and make 'em run. That shotgun handoff into the short side needs to disappear from the playbook, because it's only a chance for us to lose yardage or fumble.

.....Take care of the ball, make Bama chase, stop the run. We can do it, but will we?

Andy Bitter said...

I agree with you about comparing the units that are actually going up against each other. Our paper discussed it, but because we did it this way for the Georgia game, we kept it the same.

It's definitely something we'll think about in the future, though.

If we did it the other way, I'm still trying to figure out where Auburn would have an advantage. Probably DBs vs. Alabama WRs? I can't think of anything else.