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Friday, December 3, 2010

Who has the edge: South Carolina or Auburn?

Setting out for Atlanta in a second, but I didn't want to hit the road without getting this matchups post up first. Gene Chizik has a press conference this afternoon and Auburn has a practice this afternoon with 15 minutes open to the media (yay, stretching!), so I'll something else this afternoon.

Josh Kendall, who covers South Carolina for The State, helped us out with the Gamecocks half of the matchups.

No. 19 South Carolina at No. 1 Auburn
  • Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Ga.
  • When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS
  • Records: South Carolina 9-3, 5-3 SEC; Auburn 12-0, 8-0 SEC
South Carolina passing game vs. Auburn secondary
The Gamecocks passing game starts and mostly ends with Alshon Jeffery, who leads the SEC and is fifth in the nation in receiving yards per game (112.6). Jeffery has 75 catches this season, 36 more than the next closest Gamecock. Quarterback Stephen Garcia is fifth in the nation in passer rating but is playing with a bruised left shoulder and right thumb. Auburn’s secondary hasn’t done well against big-time receivers this year. Jeffery had 184 yards, Georgia’s A.J. Green had 164 and Alabama’s Julio Jones had 199. The Tigers did a better job on the latter two in the second half, but they still didn’t shut them down completely. Edge: South Carolina.
South Carolina running backs vs. Auburn linebackers
Freshman Marcus Lattimore has 1,114 rushing yards and has been the difference-maker for the Gamecocks’ offense this season. With 20 more yards today, he will have the third-best rushing season in school history behind only Heisman Trophy winner George Rogers’ 1979 and 1980 seasons. Auburn handled Lattimore well in the first matchup, holding the freshman to 33 yards on 14 carries, a 2.4-yard average. Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens played a big role in holding Alabama’s Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson to 60 yards last week. Add a resurgent Eltoro Freeman, who had nine tackles, two TFLs and a sack against the Tide, and Auburn’s linebacking trio is stout. Edge: Push.
South Carolina offensive line vs. Auburn defensive line
The Gamecocks have given up 25 sacks this year. Only three teams in the SEC have given up more. South Carolina has paved the way for a 1,000-yard rusher, but even the offensive linemen say that Lattimore has more to do with that than they do. Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley added to his reputation as a disrupter against Alabama, finishing with two sacks and bringing his TFL total up to 20 this year, a school record. Auburn has 30 sacks this year, fifth in the SEC. Edge: Auburn.
Auburn passing game vs. South Carolina secondary
Quarterback Cam Newton’s overlooked skill remains his passing. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns the last four games and one pick, a ball that went through the hands of a receiver. He spreads the wealth. Auburn has had a different leading receiver the last three weeks. Add in a healthy Philip Lutzenkirchen at tight end (3 TDs in two weeks) and the Tigers have a versatile attack. The Gamecocks have fluctuated from average to terrible in the secondary. The Tigers are one of the few teams that haven’t exploited South Carolina’s propensity to blow coverages, probably because they had so much success running the ball. Edge: Auburn.
Auburn running backs vs. South Carolina linebackers
Auburn’s run of 300-yard games in SEC play came to an end with a season-worst 108 rushing yards against Alabama. But the Tigers have proven they can run the ball against the Gamecocks. Newton had 176 yards in the first meeting. Running backs Mike Dyer and Onterio McCalebb added 100 and 55 yards, respectively. Dyer is 114 yards shy of 1,000 for the season. The Gamecocks linebacking corps of Josh Dickerson and Tony Straughter, a pair of Georgia Military College transfers, has been good but not great. They are undersized (201 pounds, 225 pounds) but athletic. Throw in hybrid Spur Antonio Allen and the group gets better. Allen is having a great year. Edge: Auburn.
Auburn offensive line vs. South Carolina defensive line
The Tigers’ physical edge has been well-documented, and it started against South Carolina the first time. This is the kind of game where the experience of four seniors who have made a combined to make 157 career starts pays off. Despite last week’s hiccup, Auburn is still averaging 291.3 rushing yards per game. This group has only allowed 21 sacks, third fewest in the league. The Gamecocks defensive line is their strength. Tackles Travian Robertson and Ladi Ajiboye are strong and have excellent technique. Ends Devin Taylor and Cliff Matthews are a threat on every snap, and versatile backup Melvin Ingram leads the team with eight sacks. Edge: Push
South Carolina return units vs. Auburn coverage teams
The Gamecocks have gotten nothing from their return teams. Starting punt returner Ace Sanders has only 13 return yards this season. Sanders has averaged 1.9 yards on his seven returns. Kickoff returner Bryce Sherman is ninth in the SEC. Auburn is second in the SEC in kick coverage but last in punting average. Punter Ryan Shoemaker had a decent day against Alabama, dropping two punts inside the 20, but he still only averaged 38.7 yards per punt. Edge: Auburn.
Auburn return units vs. South Carolina coverage teams
Demond Washington and McCalebb help give Auburn the 16th-ranked kick return unit in the nation, averaging 24.4 yards. But the Tigers still have a mess on punt returns. Quindarius Carr, who has held the job all year, fumbled a punt against Alabama, losing possession at a key moment. Darvin Adams has solid hands and could step in, but he’s only returned one punt in his career. South Carolina hasn’t made any big positive plays in its coverage teams, but it does have one glaring mistake, allowing Florida’s Andre DeBose to go 100 yards on the first play of the game against the Gators. Spencer Lanning is fifth in the SEC in punting. Edge: Push.
South Carolina is getting double-duty out of Lanning, who is 15-for-20 this year and hit three key 40-plus yard kicks against the Gators. He is coming off SEC Special Teams Player of the Week honors against Clemson. Auburn’s Wes Byrum is 15-for-19 this year, but you have to wonder if he’s getting rusty. The senior hasn’t had a field goal attempt since the Ole Miss game on Oct. 30. Edge: Push.
South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier will be coaching in his eighth SEC title game. The Gamecocks’ sixth-year head coach has a lot of momentum right now, having already led the team to just its third season ever with more than eight victories. Spurrier had the right plan against Auburn the first time around (scoring 27 points despite four fourth-quarter turnovers) and he will again. Auburn’s Gene Chizik has been an coordinator in big games before (on Auburn’s unbeaten 2004 team and on Texas’ national championship 2005 team), but he’s never been the one in charge in a big game like this. Although Chizik has cleared every hurdle this season, the lack of experience as a head coach in these types of games — especially compared to Spurrier — is hard to overlook. Edge: South Carolina.
South Carolina comes into the game with little to lose. The Gamecocks could lose the game and still lay claim to one of the top three seasons in school history. The key for South Carolina will be its offensive execution. Nobody in garnet and black expects to stop the Auburn offense entirely, but they have proven they can move the ball on the Tigers. They’ll have to keep pace for the whole game this time, not just three quarters like in September. Auburn, meanwhile, has everything to play for. The SEC title is on the line, but so is a berth in the BCS national championship game. The Tigers have had their share of tests this year, going down to the wire in almost all of their significant games. This is just the latest, so it shouldn’t overwhelm them.
Josh Kendall prediction: Auburn 31, South Carolina 30.
Andy Bitter prediction: Auburn 42, South Carolina 31.


War Eagle AC-47 said...

Andy, just little nits to pick. You admit we shut Lattimore down the first game, then you say "push" for S.CAR running backs vs Auburn linebackers. I'd say advantage Auburn.

I also think our O line has the advantage over their D line, especially as the game wears on. I chalk this up to superior physical conditioning. Thank coach Yoxall for this. Our guys continue to play strong against opponents who are tiring out over the course of the games we have played. And this difference is most prevalent in both of our lines over the opposing lines.

Also, as much as I like and respect the Ole Ball Coach, I am not willing to give him the advantage in coaching. He gets emotional, and makes rash decisions sometimes. Case in point, his decision to take Garcia out of the game against us. Wow. That was fatal. Later, he tried to paper over it with the assertion that Garcia was leading with his head and the coach took him out to avoid letting the kid ram his skull through a defensive lineman's helmet. Sure, okay, whatever.

But I'll put Malzahn up against Spurrier for creative ways to confuse the defense. The only thing about Gus is that he sometimes gets too carried away with cute schemes, although he has been less prone to pull the triple reverse to halfback pass shenanigans.

Andy Bitter said...

Remember that the matchups compare the running backs specifically to the linebackers. It's not necessarily rush offense vs. rush defense.

I don't think you can deny that Lattimore is a spectacular talent in that regard.

Bret Moore said...

sure, but he didn't have any 25yd runs against our LBs. Or did I miss something?

Lattimore is good. But he's not Bo Jackson; he's not even Mike Dyer. He's got a lot of yards this season, but look at how awful the SEC East is. And he's had some huge games but he's not been a consistent performer, been injured a few times, etc.

MikeP said...

Doesn't "South Carolina has nothing to lose" also mean they have little or nothing to play for?

Does "All the pressure is on Auburn" mean that Auburn has a goal to achieve while the opponent does not?

I saw it expressed both ways last week vs. Bammer, but at least the Gamecocks have an SEC title to play for.

I like Auburn, say 45-27.

Tar Heel Tiger said...

I thought rematches favored the defense. Y'all don't think it will be 7-6?

I don't either.